IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization drop to 65.5% on disruption
Maritime tracking cited in a new report shows large-vessel crossings on a US-coordinated Strait of Hormuz route effectively halted amid renewed US-Iran fighting.
Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15
Fresh reports of new Iran conflict attacks surfaced as a Washington official denied US involvement and said technical talks with Iran continue.
Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S.
Polymarket: Switzerland lead dips to 27.5% for next US-Iran talks venue
On July 9, 2026, a report said the US expanded strikes in Iran, while Iranian officials reported civilian damage across Bushehr province near key infrastructure.
Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role.
Polymarket odds sink to 4.5% on Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31
After a June 17 US-Iran shipping MoU, attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and escalatory strikes revived closure threats, while transits stayed about 28 a day versus 100 pre-war.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion Yes to 16.5% after renewed attacks
A report says U.S. and Iranian forces traded attacks for a second day after Trump said the ceasefire was “over,” with U.S. strikes on about 90 coastal targets and Iran hitting sites linked to U.S.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up
The U.S. military said it ended a new round of strikes in Iran after hitting about 90 targets, as Iran responded with attacks affecting U.S.-allied Gulf states.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes
US strikes were reported on Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask, with at least one death in Iranshahr and widespread power outages in Chabahar.
Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31
Washington said it will lift Syria’s “state sponsor of terrorism” label in 45 days unless Congress blocks it, after Trump met President Ahmed al-Sharaa at a NATO summit in Turkey.
Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares
At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
Polymarket odds price 16.5% chance of U.S. invading Iran before 2027
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes tied to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket