IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Hormuz shipping resumes as Polymarket sees 5.5% odds Iran halts enrichment
Friday, at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz as Brent rose to $80.38 after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, even while Iran signaled tighter transit controls.
Postponed US-Iran talks push Polymarket to 13.5% on ending enrichment by July
European stocks slipped after Tehran and Washington postponed talks, while JD Vance said any economic relief hinges on full compliance and Iran’s supreme leader called the interim terms conditional.
US lifts Iran blockade, Polymarket puts no US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 40%
On June 18, the United States lifted its blockade of Iran and tankers resumed moving through the Strait of Hormuz as a tentative war-ending deal took hold.
US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%
U.S. Central Command said the United States ended its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed a 14-point deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Iran MOU keeps enrichment status quo as Polymarket Yes slips to 19.5%
President Donald Trump signed an MOU with Iran that keeps its nuclear program’s “status quo” while talks continue, postponing decisions on uranium enrichment and stockpiles.
US-Iran Hormuz passage deal fails to sway Polymarket, 'Yes' at 7.5%
OPEC chief Haitham al-Ghais pushed back on the IEA’s warning of a 2027 supply glut as investors assessed a new US-Iran memorandum offering 60 days of toll-free, safe Strait of Hormuz passage.
Trump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%
A Feb. 28 attack on Iran and a new Trump–Pezeshkian memorandum outline U.S. concessions tied to pressure points like the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Lebanon war.
Report flags US-Iran peace framework as Polymarket 'no meeting' dips to 50%
A new report says the U.S. and Iran have a preliminary framework for a longer-term peace deal, helping drive oil about 30% below its April 7 peak near $113.
Trump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slip
On Wednesday, Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a 14-point interim memorandum to halt regional military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with toll-free commercial
War inflation shifts rate bets as Polymarket Iran enrichment Yes dips to 55.5%
Central banks are warning the Iran-war inflation shock may not fade quickly, with investors now pricing two U.S. rate hikes in 2026 as energy disruptions linger.
Trump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on Polymarket
Early Thursday, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump signed an interim peace memorandum after the G7, pledging immediate effect and steps like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing oil
U.S.-Iran deal eases Hormuz fears as Polymarket sees 67.5% for enrichment halt
Oil prices were little changed after JD Vance said tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, following a Trump-Pezeshkian deal to restore passage.
Iran offers 60-day toll-free Hormuz passage as Polymarket sees 56.5% normalcy
U.S. officials said Iran and Gulf states will meet after an initial 60-day period of toll-free, safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with a Geneva memorandum expected Friday.
U.S.-Iran MOU spotlights Hormuz reopening as Polymarket Yes slips to 14.5%
Overnight Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian signed a light-on-details MOU that would lift a U.S. naval blockade and seek toll-free Strait of Hormuz reopening for 60 days.
Trump Iran MOU heads to Congress as Polymarket invasion odds tick up to 12.5%
During the G7 meeting in France, Donald Trump said he could transmit an Iran memorandum of understanding to Congress as it looked set to take effect Friday.
