IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Vance cancels trip, US-Iran talks slip; Polymarket has Switzerland at 68%
A planned round of direct US-Iran talks at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort was postponed after Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip, with the White House citing unpredictable logistics.
Hormuz tanker traffic resumes as Polymarket Yes odds rise to 2.7%
After the U.S. lifted its blockade on Iran Thursday, shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz and Brent fell 1% to $79.03, lifting Japan and South Korea stocks to records.
Oil eases as Hormuz reopens, Polymarket puts July traffic normal at 47%
U.S.-Iran follow-up talks in Switzerland were called off, and oil prices swung even as tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight.
Hormuz shipping resumes as Polymarket sees 5.5% odds Iran halts enrichment
Friday, at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz as Brent rose to $80.38 after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, even while Iran signaled tighter transit controls.
Postponed US-Iran talks push Polymarket to 13.5% on ending enrichment by July
European stocks slipped after Tehran and Washington postponed talks, while JD Vance said any economic relief hinges on full compliance and Iran’s supreme leader called the interim terms conditional.
US lifts Iran blockade, Polymarket puts no US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 40%
On June 18, the United States lifted its blockade of Iran and tankers resumed moving through the Strait of Hormuz as a tentative war-ending deal took hold.
US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%
U.S. Central Command said the United States ended its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed a 14-point deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Iran MOU keeps enrichment status quo as Polymarket Yes slips to 19.5%
President Donald Trump signed an MOU with Iran that keeps its nuclear program’s “status quo” while talks continue, postponing decisions on uranium enrichment and stockpiles.
US-Iran Hormuz passage deal fails to sway Polymarket, 'Yes' at 7.5%
OPEC chief Haitham al-Ghais pushed back on the IEA’s warning of a 2027 supply glut as investors assessed a new US-Iran memorandum offering 60 days of toll-free, safe Strait of Hormuz passage.
Trump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%
A Feb. 28 attack on Iran and a new Trump–Pezeshkian memorandum outline U.S. concessions tied to pressure points like the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Lebanon war.
Report flags US-Iran peace framework as Polymarket 'no meeting' dips to 50%
A new report says the U.S. and Iran have a preliminary framework for a longer-term peace deal, helping drive oil about 30% below its April 7 peak near $113.
Trump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slip
On Wednesday, Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a 14-point interim memorandum to halt regional military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with toll-free commercial
War inflation shifts rate bets as Polymarket Iran enrichment Yes dips to 55.5%
Central banks are warning the Iran-war inflation shock may not fade quickly, with investors now pricing two U.S. rate hikes in 2026 as energy disruptions linger.
Trump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on Polymarket
Early Thursday, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump signed an interim peace memorandum after the G7, pledging immediate effect and steps like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing oil
U.S.-Iran deal eases Hormuz fears as Polymarket sees 67.5% for enrichment halt
Oil prices were little changed after JD Vance said tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, following a Trump-Pezeshkian deal to restore passage.
