IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Russia escalates Ukraine strikes as Polymarket backs Pakistan for US-Iran talks
On July 4, 2026, Russian strikes hit multiple Ukrainian regions, killing four people in Sumy and sparking a major fire at a Kherson poultry farm.
Khamenei funeral chills diplomacy as Polymarket pegs Switzerland talks at 31%
Iran has begun a days-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with large crowds and chants against the U.S. and Israel.
Khamenei funeral begins as Polymarket cuts Iran regime-fall odds to 6.5%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral began in Tehran, with crowds chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel!” as the ceremony got underway.
Missile-hit CMA CGM ship may be scrapped as Polymarket Yes slips to 24.5%
CMA CGM’s chief executive said a company vessel hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz may be sent for scrapping, underscoring the security risks facing commercial shipping.
Trump touts Iran progress as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 33.5%
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to “just about everything” the United States needs, but offered no terms, timing, or location for any next meeting.
Iran warns ships in Hormuz as Polymarket odds of normal traffic slip to 26%
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters told ships in the Strait of Hormuz to stick to designated routes and Iranian navigation rules, warning violators of an immediate response.
U.S.–Iran talks show progress as Polymarket puts July 7 Hormuz normalcy at 1%
After the latest indirect U.S.-Iran talks concluded, Iran reported “positive progress” and said a communication channel with Washington will be set up to address MoU breaches.
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No
A new report says Iran and Oman are advancing plans to impose transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. opposition.
Algeria heads to July 2 vote as Polymarket keeps Qatar at 47.5% for talks
On July 2, Algerians head to the polls to choose 407 lawmakers, with low turnout expected and reforms since the 2019 Hirak movement still contested.
Trump crypto disclosure nudges Polymarket US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
A US Office of Government Ethics report released this week detailed President Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures, including over $1.4 billion tied to crypto ventures and meme coin sales.
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcy
A top Iranian negotiator said a memorandum of understanding with the United States remains unfulfilled, and Iran won’t hold broader talks until it is implemented.
Iran-Qatar frozen assets talks lift Polymarket odds for Qatar to host US-Iran
Iran’s foreign ministry said it will hold talks with Qatar on frozen assets, underscoring Doha’s intermediary role on sensitive financial issues.
Zelenskyy cites new Dubna strike as Polymarket lifts US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv struck Russia’s Dubna satellite site a second time, underscoring continued attacks on space-linked infrastructure.