IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Iraq sets militia deadline as Polymarket lifts Qatar odds for US-Iran talks
Iraq set a Sept. 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to dissolve, according to a report, sharpening timelines around Tehran’s regional influence.
Iran rules out near-term US talks as Polymarket puts Dec. 31 deal odds at 45.5%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said there would be no Iran-US talks in the coming days, signaling no immediate diplomatic engagement.
Israeli strike raises tensions as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 43.5%
On Oct. 7 fallout, Israel’s military said an airstrike killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative it claims crossed into Israel and took hostages.
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%
Brent crude rose about 0.9% Monday to $73.21 after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iran over alleged vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%
Fresh exchanges between the United States and Iran have put a reported preliminary understanding in doubt, complicating the push toward a finalized nuclear agreement.
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States.
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait.
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track.
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient.
Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane.
South Lebanon strike report drops Iran regime-fall odds to 0.05% on Polymarket
A report said an Israeli strike was carried out in south Lebanon in recent days, though officials haven’t confirmed details.
US strikes, Trump vow sink Polymarket Jul15 Hormuz normalization odds to 13.5%
Fresh U.S. military strikes coincided with former President Donald Trump warning he would “complete the job” in Iran, heightening escalation concerns around Gulf shipping lanes.
US strikes Iran again after Hormuz tanker hit; Polymarket sees 99.95% by Aug 31
On the second day of renewed action, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, and drone sites after the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around 4:30 a.m. ET.
CENTCOM confirms new US strikes as Polymarket puts Iran shipping hit at 99%
On June 27, U.S. Central Command confirmed new U.S. strikes, saying Iran had a chance to honor a ceasefire but chose not to.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.