ISRAEL & GAZA PREDICTION MARKETS
Trump touts Doha push as Polymarket cuts Lebanon-Israel recognition odds to 5%
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said U.S.
Knesset blocks Red Cross ban as Polymarket boosts Eizenkot to 41%
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset voted down a bill to bar International Red Cross visits to Palestinian detainees, 36–42, after a court said the ban lacked legal basis.
UAE lifts Lebanon travel ban as Polymarket sees 18% odds of Israel recognition
The United Arab Emirates has lifted a war-related ban on travel to Lebanon, reversing restrictions introduced during the conflict period.
Lapid alleges Netanyahu "satellite parties" as Polymarket backs Eizenkot 41.6%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Benjamin Netanyahu is building “satellite parties” ahead of Israel’s next election, arguing it signals he expects defeat.
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slips
On June 25, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed met Syria’s foreign minister a day before the US, Lebanon, and Israel announced a trilateral framework that Gulf officials see as a sovereignty and
Hezbollah rhetoric hits Lebanon recognition odds as Polymarket slips to 21%
In a fresh statement, Iran-backed Hezbollah said it has a “right to defend its homeland” in Lebanon, underscoring continued readiness for confrontation amid high regional tensions.
Adorni quits in Milei graft storm as Polymarket boosts Eizenkot to 41.6%
On Saturday, Javier Milei’s cabinet chief Manuel Adorni resigned as prosecutors probe alleged illicit enrichment tied to lavish spending and property.
West Bank lockdown as Polymarket boosts Israel–Lebanon meeting odds to 91.5%
A West Bank settlement was locked down for over six hours after a suspected terrorist infiltration was reported.
Anthropic-Alibaba IP spat as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40% for Israel PM
Anthropic accused Alibaba of unlawfully copying capabilities from its Claude AI system, escalating tensions over IP in advanced models.
US-Iran talks raise Israel focus as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 37%
On June 21 at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort, JD Vance began what he called historic US-Iran talks as Trump warned of strikes if Iran doesn’t curb proxies in Lebanon.
Lebanon ceasefire news trims Eizenkot lead to 37% on Polymarket
A U.S. official said Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed Friday to a Lebanon ceasefire starting at 4 p.m. GMT, though later reports cited a deadly drone strike.
Hormuz ceasefire memo spotlights Israel PM race as Polymarket has Bibi 39%
On June 14, the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire memo set to be signed June 19 in Geneva, reopening the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and unlocking up to $120B.
Trump-Iran war deal nudges Israel PM market, Eizenkot leads at 38.55%
On June 17, Donald Trump and Iran’s president signed an MOU to end the Middle East war, pairing uranium dilution with economic relief.
Lebanon strikes and Trump jab reprice Israel PM market, Eizenkot at 39.1%
On Wednesday, reported Israeli drone and jet strikes hit southern Lebanon as Trump criticized Netanyahu at the G7 and Netanyahu vowed forces would stay.
