MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket prices 96% Fed hold in July as inflation fears shift odds
A market-focused report said silver fell as energy-driven inflation fears kept the Fed’s rate outlook elevated.
Polymarket odds hold: 66.5% for September Fed no-change
Ahead of key U.S. employment data, Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year at 4.573% and the 2-year at 4.158% as markets weighed fresh disinflation signals.
Polymarket: Messi odds jump to 41% in 2026 Ballon d’Or market
A new video segment said an analyst expects Apple to keep growing in Q2 despite price hikes, citing pulled-forward China demand and potential regulatory approval for Apple AI and Alibaba’s model.
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M trades
A market note said gold fell as Iran-related tensions eased inflation-risk fears, boosting the dollar and reviving talk the Fed could stay hawkish.
Polymarket prices 2026 Fed at 82% no cuts as yuan note fails to shift odds
A new research note titled “Chinese Yuan: Upside bias against US Dollar” pitches near-term CNY strength versus USD, framed as an FX tilt rather than a Fed forecast.
Polymarket: September Fed hold odds slip to 64% after Warsh hearings
After two days of House and Senate questioning, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh drew few major missteps as lawmakers pressed that prices are still rising too fast and he ordered reviews of inflation gauges.
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65K
Bitcoin rose above $65,000 this week, with the move credited to easing inflation and momentum around the “Clarity Act.” Polymarket traders care because the July 2026 Fed ladder now clusters on “No
Polymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimony
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced the Senate Banking Committee after testifying to the House a day earlier, reiterating his inflation focus but offering few policy clues.
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim bets
A macro/FX note on the Indian rupee says it has attracted bids as traders pare back expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Polymarket sees 92.5% odds of July Fed hold as crypto jumps on easing inflation
Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 after a report said inflation eased, with Zcash and Pump.fun among rally leaders.
Polymarket odds: Fed hold slips to 56.5% after softer CPI chatter
After a softer US CPI print, the US Dollar Index slipped as investors reassessed how restrictive Fed policy may need to be at upcoming meetings.
Polymarket prices 2026 Fed hike at 51.5% after 15-point drop
June US inflation data showed CPI slowing to 3.5% year on year from 4.2% in May, sending the dollar lower and cooling near-term Fed hike expectations.
Polymarket odds: July Fed hold at 93.5% after CPI cools hike fears
A macro note titled “US CPI report quietens Fed rate hike expectations” said the latest CPI eased pressure on the Fed to tighten ahead of the July 2026 meeting.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 dip to 80% on China export view
A PIMCO commentator said China’s move up the manufacturing value chain could keep exports growing and ease inflation abroad.
Polymarket odds: Mbappe leads 2026 Ballon d'Or at 33.5% on $7.1M
A report says Trump urged the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act ahead of a crucial vote on the crypto bill.
