MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%
Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September
A market note this week highlighted conflict-driven oil volatility and positioning as a key driver of near-term swings, warning it could ripple into broader risk sentiment and rates expectations.
Higher mortgage outlook dips Kane to 26.5% in Polymarket Ballon d'Or 2026
For the week ending July 2, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, and a report warned it could stay between 6.50% and 6.70% until 2027.
RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5%
On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over.
Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday evening the U.S. launched powerful strikes on Iran after attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift WTI crude more than 2% above $72.
BofA warns of equity snapback as Polymarket puts Sept Fed hold at 69.5%
After the S&P 500’s best quarter since 2020, Bank of America warned valuations could “snapback” as speculation runs hot and the Fed battles sticky inflation.
Bitcoin rally lifts Polymarket odds of Fed July hold to 88.5%
After bitcoin logged its best week since March, a market report said bulls were buoyed by a constructive U.S. inflation outlook and stronger risk appetite.
Tech wobble lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July to 89.5%
Technology stocks showed signs of wobbling as investors hunted for fresh Federal Reserve clues and watched what upcoming earnings might reveal about demand and pricing power.
Bitcoin tops $62K as crypto bill advances, Polymarket sees Fed hold at 89.5%
Bitcoin traded above $62,000 as a U.S. crypto bill gained fresh traction in Washington, refocusing attention on digital-asset policy.
Iran ceasefire hits dollar as Polymarket odds for zero 2026 Fed cuts slip
After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. dollar headed for its worst day since April as markets flipped risk-on.
Weak jobs data lifts Bitcoin as Polymarket sees 89.5% odds of Fed hold
Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 after U.S. jobs data undershot expectations, underscoring macro’s grip on crypto risk appetite.
Fed minutes loom as Polymarket no-cut 2026 odds slip to 77.55%
The US Dollar stayed resilient heading into a week with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and new US jobless claims, key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations.
Soft dollar outlook lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July at 89.5%
This week’s US dollar forecast said the greenback looks softer while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to pivot from its stance.
Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts
After weak US nonfarm payrolls data, gold extended gains as investors reassessed how much room the Federal Reserve has left to keep tightening.
Jobs report resets July Fed outlook as Polymarket pegs no-change at 90.5%
A MUFG-cited research note says the latest US jobs data has reset expectations for the Fed’s path, reshaping positioning and dollar dynamics ahead of upcoming decisions.
