MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d'Or after +5.45pp
A new housing report says this spring’s buying season was underwhelming for a fourth year, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% after a late-February dip reversed following the US attack on Iran.
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike drop to 58.5% after AI inflation talk
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting cited tariffs and “AI-related price pressures” as drivers of higher core goods inflation, with energy and AI infrastructure demand adding to costs.
Polymarket odds lift to 79.5% for Fed hold in July after CPI risk note
A research note ahead of the CPI release warned that shifting Fed policy expectations could drive near-term stock volatility.
Polymarket odds for zero Fed cuts in 2026 dip to 78% as $41.8M trades
On Saturday, Bitcoin held gains above $64,000 as U.S. crypto policy stayed in focus, keeping macro expectations in play.
Polymarket odds jump to 79.5% for July Fed hold amid risk-off swing
After a “Trading Day” risk-off note flagged stocks sliding and crude jumping when Donald Trump said an Iran peace deal was “over,” cross-asset moves turned defensive.
Polymarket: 2026 Fed hike odds ease to 59% after bond-ETF catalyst
A bond-focused write-up recently pitched corporate bonds for 2026 and spotlighted FCOR, an active investment-grade ETF that can use derivatives and charges a 36 bps fee, as a way to stay “durable” if
Polymarket odds lift Mbappé to 34% in 2026 Ballon d’Or market
A new RBC Wealth Management note warned the Federal Reserve could reverse 2025 “insurance cuts” or even avoid raising rates, underscoring how quickly policy expectations can shift.
Polymarket odds lift July Fed hold to 78% as hike risk stays on ladder
U.S. stocks inched higher as AI-linked winners extended weekly gains, with Treasury yields also ticking up ahead of major bank earnings.
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces
Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year.
Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger
After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%.
Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise
Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.49% this week, alongside firmer Treasury yields.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%
Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.