MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Bitcoin rally lifts Polymarket odds of Fed July hold to 88.5%
After bitcoin logged its best week since March, a market report said bulls were buoyed by a constructive U.S. inflation outlook and stronger risk appetite.
Tech wobble lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July to 89.5%
Technology stocks showed signs of wobbling as investors hunted for fresh Federal Reserve clues and watched what upcoming earnings might reveal about demand and pricing power.
Bitcoin tops $62K as crypto bill advances, Polymarket sees Fed hold at 89.5%
Bitcoin traded above $62,000 as a U.S. crypto bill gained fresh traction in Washington, refocusing attention on digital-asset policy.
Iran ceasefire hits dollar as Polymarket odds for zero 2026 Fed cuts slip
After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. dollar headed for its worst day since April as markets flipped risk-on.
Weak jobs data lifts Bitcoin as Polymarket sees 89.5% odds of Fed hold
Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 after U.S. jobs data undershot expectations, underscoring macro’s grip on crypto risk appetite.
Fed minutes loom as Polymarket no-cut 2026 odds slip to 77.55%
The US Dollar stayed resilient heading into a week with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and new US jobless claims, key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations.
Soft dollar outlook lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July at 89.5%
This week’s US dollar forecast said the greenback looks softer while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to pivot from its stance.
Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts
After weak US nonfarm payrolls data, gold extended gains as investors reassessed how much room the Federal Reserve has left to keep tightening.
Jobs report resets July Fed outlook as Polymarket pegs no-change at 90.5%
A MUFG-cited research note says the latest US jobs data has reset expectations for the Fed’s path, reshaping positioning and dollar dynamics ahead of upcoming decisions.
Yen steadies on intervention talk as Polymarket sees 67.5% Fed hold
The Japanese yen steadied as traders weighed rising risks of official currency-market intervention and softer expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
AUD/JPY steadies near 112 as Polymarket tilts 53.5% to no Fed hike in 2026
A July 3 technical note said AUD/JPY hovered around 112.00 but stayed below key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt despite the pause.
Cooler June jobs report lifts Polymarket Fed hold odds to 90.5%
On Thursday, U.S. stocks split after June payrolls rose just 57,000 and jobless rate hit 4.2%, cooling expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Strategist backs quieter Fed as Polymarket hold odds jump to 79.5%
In a recent segment, strategist Kenny Polcari said a less vocal Federal Reserve would foster more disciplined markets and expects Kevin Warsh to keep rates steady.
Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%
Mexico’s central bank survey showed private economists now expect lower inflation, reinforcing a softer price outlook that can ripple into global rate assumptions.
Kocher flags easing inflation as Polymarket cuts 2026 Fed hike odds to 54.5%
At 08:42 on July 1, 2026, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said European inflation is stabilizing as Middle East tensions ease, but uncertainty remains high.
