MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Dollar spikes on hawkish Warsh Fed, Polymarket keeps SpaceX atop 2026 IPO
The U.S. dollar hit its strongest level since May 2025 after the Fed’s first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh pushed traders to a more hawkish rate path.
BofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%
After the latest FOMC meeting, Bank of America shifted its call to three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, citing fading tolerance for above-target inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin
Goldman warns SE Asia food shock as Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 74%
Goldman Sachs said rising oil and fertilizer costs plus a possible late-2026 El Nino could add 2.1 points to Southeast Asia food inflation over the next year.
Tech-led stock slide as traders cut Polymarket 2026 Fed hike odds to 57.5%
U.S. stocks finished mixed Monday as big tech sank, pushing the S&P 500 down 0.37% and the Nasdaq off 1.32%, while investors awaited Thursday’s PCE inflation report.
Tech selloff nudges SpaceX IPO lead down as Polymarket stays at 85.5%
On Monday, U.S. stocks ended mixed as big tech slid, with the Nasdaq down 1.3% and SpaceX shares falling for a third straight day.
JPMAM flags midyear rebound; Polymarket puts July Fed hold odds at 74%
In its 2026 midyear outlook, JPMorgan Asset Management told investors to stay in stocks for the second half, citing AI-driven growth and resilient consumers despite lingering inflation.
Screwworm risk and USMCA July 1 clock keep Polymarket at 80% for zero Fed cuts
A June report said ground beef prices are up over 20% since January 2025 as tighter cattle supplies meet a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into the US and looming USMCA renewal risk ahead of
Warsh launches Fed policy review as Polymarket lifts July hold odds to 73.5%
After his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh formed five task forces to rethink communications, data, inflation views, AI’s impact, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.
ADMA suit shakes risk mood as Polymarket still prices 80% odds of zero 2026 cuts
A federal securities complaint filed in New Jersey alleges ADMA Biologics boosted revenue via channel stuffing and hid a related-party distribution tie after a March 24, 2026 short-seller report.
Strong jobs data dims cuts as Polymarket sees 81% odds of zero in 2026
For the week ending June 13, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 and unemployment stayed at 4.3%, as the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17 and lifted its end-2026 median to 3.8%.
Warsh flags easy financing as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 78.5%
After the June 17, 2026 Fed meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to a Wall Street “gusher of capital” as equity and debt fundraising surged, tempering expectations for near-term cuts.
Warsh drops forward guidance as Polymarket pegs 2026 zero cuts at 79.85%
At his first press conference as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh cut back on forward guidance and said the latest statement offered no hints on the next move, sparking volatile trading.
Warsh hints at quieter Fed as Polymarket keeps SpaceX 86.5% for top 2026 IPO
In his first press conference this week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joked about launching five task forces and declined to offer forward guidance, hinting at a return to less Fed communication.
AI data center debt sharpens rate focus as Polymarket sees July hold at 78.5%
On Wednesday, Fed chair Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as tech giants ramped debt-funded AI data center spending, with the 10-year yield near 4.45%.
Trump approval holds at 37% as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold to 77.5%
A June 11-17 AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults put President Donald Trump’s approval at 37%, unchanged as a tentative U.S.-Iran deal emerged and 53% said U.S. actions went too far.
