MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS
Micron earnings in focus as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 81%
Markets are watching Micron’s quarterly results on Wednesday, June 24, for fresh clues on whether AI and data-center chip demand is still accelerating.
Warsh holds rates steady as Polymarket lifts July no-change odds to 74.5%
On June 17, the Fed held rates steady for a fourth straight meeting at 3.5% to 3.75% as new chair Kevin Warsh announced policy task forces and pared back guidance.
BOJ deputy warns on inflation as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike odds at 66%
After the Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1% and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned inflation could exceed 2%, investors read the remarks as support for more tightening this year.
Japan inflation cools as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 72.5%
In May, Japan’s core CPI rose 1.4% year over year and stayed below the BOJ’s 2% target for a fourth month, even after this week’s rate hike to a 31-year high.
Yield curve flattens as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed zero cuts at 81%
After the Fed held rates steady, the Treasury yield curve flattened, with the 10-year/2-year spread near 28 bps, the tightest since April 2025.
Stocks climb on U.S.-Iran peace memo as Polymarket sees 74.5% July Fed hold
Tech-led U.S. shares rallied Thursday after President Donald Trump and Iran’s president signed a memo to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease tensions.
Warsh’s first Fed hold lifts Polymarket odds of zero 2026 rate cuts to 80%
On June 17, the Fed was set to keep rates steady at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, as investors parsed guidance amid April inflation at a three-year high.
Warsh’s first Fed decision looms as Polymarket holds Dems at 80.5%
Ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed rate decision, investors expect no change and will parse the statement, dot plot, and press conference for December hike signals.
UK inflation undershoots forecasts as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 79.5%
Official data released Wednesday showed UK CPI held at 2.8% in May, undershooting forecasts for a rise to 3% as airfare-driven transport costs climbed.
Warsh Fed holds steady; Polymarket boosts 2026 no-cuts odds to 82.9%
U.S. equities slid after the Fed left rates unchanged in its first decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, while signaling hikes could come later this year.
Warsh may skip dot plot as Polymarket lifts 2026 zero-cut odds to 80%
The Fed is due to publish its dot-plot update Wednesday, and watchers say Chair Kevin Warsh, in office since May 22, may not submit a dot.
Housing starts slump, Polymarket still pegs July Fed hold at 91.5%
In May, U.S. single-family homebuilding sank to an eight-month low as higher mortgage rates and material costs squeezed demand.
BOJ hikes to 1% as Polymarket sees 70% odds the Fed makes zero 2026 cuts
On Friday, Japan’s central bank raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 1% in a split 7-1 decision, the highest in over three decades.
Brent dips under $83 on Hormuz deal talk; Polymarket July hold at 93.5%
On June 15, Brent crude slipped below $83 as traders reacted to a tentative U.S.-Iran framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire.
US-Iran truce lifts risk mood as Polymarket pegs 69% odds of zero Fed cuts
On Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced an interim peace deal, lifting risk appetite as bitcoin neared $66,000 Monday and crypto-linked stocks rose pre-market.
