MACRO & FED PREDICTION MARKETS

Fed-cut odds stay unlikely as Warsh week boosts crypto rally
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed-cut odds stay unlikely as Warsh week boosts crypto rally

Bitcoin jumped to a two-week high near $67,000 as Iran's ceasefire eased macro fears ahead of a pivotal FOMC week.

Fed rate-cut Odds Edge Higher on Polymarket Amid Policy Uncertainty
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed rate-cut Odds Edge Higher on Polymarket Amid Policy Uncertainty

Global equities rose after a US-Iran deal spurred risk-on sentiment, lifting major indices, as Fed policy expectations shifted toward a slower 2026 cut path.

Fed Decision in June: Odds Narrow Around No Change
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed Decision in June: Odds Narrow Around No Change

Iran-US talks outlined a framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the BoJ signals two rate hikes this year.

No Fed Cuts Seen in 2026 Amid Market Betting on Slow Easing
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

No Fed Cuts Seen in 2026 Amid Market Betting on Slow Easing

On 2026-? ECB raises rates to curb inflation, signaling tighter policy amid lingering price pressures.

Fed Holds Rates in June as Market Bets Narrow to No Change
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed Holds Rates in June as Market Bets Narrow to No Change

On June 2026, markets expect a hold as Warsh leads the first rate meeting, keeping policy signals cautious amid inflation and data.

Fed cuts 2026 staggers near zero as markets reprice on data
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed cuts 2026 staggers near zero as markets reprice on data

On [date], the United States crushed Paraguay 4-1 in the World Cup opener, while Polymarket traders reprice the Fed rate-cut ladder for 2026 as odds drift.

Fed Cuts in 2026: Market Bets Lean No-Change
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed Cuts in 2026: Market Bets Lean No-Change

In Aspen this week, a Fortune profile discusses Steve Case’s optimism on AI growth and worries about job disruption, framing a balance between innovation and employment.

Crypto selloff lifts World Cup prop bets on Mbappe lead
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Crypto selloff lifts World Cup prop bets on Mbappe lead

Bitcoin and ether slid this week, marking one of the worst weekly drawdowns since the FTX collapse.

Fed decision odds shift as markets price no-change ahead of July meeting
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed decision odds shift as markets price no-change ahead of July meeting

Bitcoin hovered near $67k after a session low around $66,948, with macro softness and sector selling weighing on prices.

Bitwise Bitcoin view nudges Mbappe-led World Cup market
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Bitwise Bitcoin view nudges Mbappe-led World Cup market

On June 2, 2026, Bitcoin’s valuation debate centers on a Bitwise model imagining a $224,000 fair value amid rising debt concerns and bond-market stress.

Fed Decision in June: Odds Narrow as No-Change Remains Leader
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed Decision in June: Odds Narrow as No-Change Remains Leader

May ISM data showed U.S. manufacturing expanding at the strongest pace in four years, despite supply strains and rising costs.

Fed rate-cut odds rise as traders price fewer easing moves in 2026
Macro & Fed Prediction Markets

Fed rate-cut odds rise as traders price fewer easing moves in 2026

On Tuesday, markets show investors pricing in a range of easing paths for 2026 as inflation and growth clouds persist.