UKRAINE & RUSSIA PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by mid-2027 jump to 15.5% on EU sanctions
After weeks of negotiations, EU countries agreed a softened 21st Russia sanctions package targeting energy, finance, crypto and trade, while keeping the oil price cap frozen for 12 months.
Polymarket odds double to 16.5% for Putin out by June 2027
Ukraine called an urgent UN Security Council meeting after Russian strikes reportedly halted traffic through Kyiv’s Black Sea maritime corridor during harvest season.
Polymarket odds: United Russia at 56.5% after drone strike headlines
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit two Wildberries distribution centers in Russia’s Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, injuring several people and sparking a large firefighting response, with Kyiv
Polymarket: United Russia at 56.5% to lead seat gains in 2026 Duma race
A report said Hungary was left without a presidential candidate after a chess legend declined, a headline that can jolt attention toward political bets.
Polymarket odds: Syrskyi out by Dec 31 at 88.75% on Zelensky reshuffle talk
A report says Volodymyr Zelensky is weighing replacing Armed Forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapaty, though sources disagree on timing and whether a final decision exists.
Polymarket prices 16.5% Putin exit by June 2027 as ladder shifts long-dated
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking seven “shadow fleet” vessels in the Azov and Black Seas and hitting air defenses and energy sites, including Crimea.
Polymarket prices Syrskyi exit by Dec 31 at 95% as OSCE visits Kyiv
OSCE permanent representatives arrived in Kyiv after another massive Russian attack to witness the damage, as Ruslan Stefanchuk and Volodymyr Zelensky pressed allies for faster air-defense support.
Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 16% after Duma exile bill push
Russia’s State Duma is set to fast-track a bill midweek that would curb exiled anti-war Russians’ access to online banking, property deals, and consular services, pending Putin’s signature.
Polymarket odds for Putin out by Jun 2027 jump to 16% after drone reports
On July 20, 2026, reports said an overnight wave of Ukrainian drones hit Moscow and nearby districts, wounding at least 10 people and sparking fires and evacuations.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 17.5%
In an evening address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is relying on ballistic missiles and urged faster air-defense deliveries after a large strike hit over a hundred sites.
Polymarket odds dip on Syrskyi exit by year-end as Kyiv faces mass strikes
Overnight, Russia fired 40+ missiles and 120 attack drones, with most aimed at Kyiv, as rescue and cleanup efforts continued, Zelensky said.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 19% on $17.8M
Overnight, nearly 50 drones reportedly targeted Russia’s Moscow region, igniting fires at an oil depot in Noginsk and a Wildberries logistics site in Elektrostal.
Polymarket puts Putin-out-by-2027 at 18.5% as ladder prices tilt later
A fact-check report reviewed a primetime speech in which President Donald Trump repeated unverified 2020 election claims, saying official assessments found no vote totals were technically altered.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 18.5%
At 9 p.m. ET, President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a primetime address on elections and voting machines, as some networks reportedly skip live airing.
Polymarket puts Putin-out-by-2027 at 17% after Arizona election settlement
Maricopa County election officials agreed to a joint oversight framework after mediation, setting an interim plan for the July 21 primary as early voting began in late June.