UKRAINE & RUSSIA PREDICTION MARKETS
Chernihiv drone strike lifts Polymarket Ukraine-Crimea recapture odds to 14%
Overnight in Chernihiv, Russian drone debris damaged a school complex and shattered nearby apartment windows, injuring two people, city officials said.
Zelensky sets NATO agenda as Polymarket puts Crimea recapture odds at 12.5%
Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will prioritize air defense, energy resilience, EU integration, and pressure on Russia, after securing 160 recovery deals
Trump headlines nudge Polymarket: 11.5% odds Putin exits by end-2026
In a June 26 news roundup, President Donald Trump warned “godless communists” are taking over the Democratic Party and hinted at consequences for Iran, while a U.S.-backed Israel-Lebanon framework
Bolton guilty plea lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 13.5%
Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty Friday in federal court in Greenbelt, Maryland, to illegally retaining national defense information, with sentencing set for Oct. 28.
POW swap lifts Polymarket odds of Ukraine retaking Crimea to 14.5% by 2026
On Friday, Ukraine and Russia each returned 160 prisoners of war in a new exchange, Zelensky said.
Mass drone strikes lift Polymarket odds of Ukraine retaking Crimea to 12%
Overnight into Friday, Russia said it intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones, with strikes reported near Moscow and Russian-occupied Crimea and temporary flight limits at the capital’s main airports.
Supreme Court border ruling as Polymarket raises Putin exit odds to 9.5%
On Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 to lift a lower-court block on an asylum-limiting border practice the Trump administration could revive.
Wimbledon chatter fades as Polymarket puts United Russia at 64.5%
With Wimbledon set for June 29 to July 12, a live build-up feed tracked rolling scores and player updates, though the live blog was temporarily unavailable.
Czech cabinet bars Pavel from NATO summit as Polymarket keeps Putin exit at 8.5%
Prague’s government said President Petr Pavel won’t be part of the Czech delegation to the July 7-8 NATO summit in Ankara, prompting him to consider a Constitutional Court challenge.
Russia Parliament race: United Russia leads Polymarket odds after U.S.-Iran deal
On a week when Washington and Tehran reportedly agreed to steps to end the conflict, European equities rose and oil drifted lower.
