Bitcoin Tests Critical Support at $101K as Technical Indicators Signal Oversold Conditions
Joerg Hiller Nov 05, 2025 10:10
Bitcoin trades at $101,891.11 after a 1.8% daily decline, approaching key support levels as RSI hits 33.25 and momentum indicators suggest potential reversal zone.
Quick Take
• BTC trading at $101,891.11 (down 1.8% in 24h) • Technical consolidation driving price action in absence of major catalysts • Bitcoin testing lower Bollinger Band support at $102,483 • RSI oversold conditions potentially setting up counter-trend bounce
Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement
Trading on technical factors in absence of major catalysts has characterized Bitcoin's recent price action. No significant news events have emerged in the past 48 hours to drive directional moves, leaving the BTC price vulnerable to technical trading patterns and broader market sentiment.
The current decline appears driven by profit-taking following Bitcoin's recent rally toward the $104,842 high. Volume on Binance spot has remained elevated at over $5.3 billion, suggesting institutional participation continues despite the pullback. This technical consolidation phase often precedes either a continuation of the previous trend or a meaningful reversal, making current price levels critical for near-term direction.
Market participants are closely monitoring traditional market correlations, as Bitcoin has shown increased sensitivity to broader risk sentiment in recent sessions. The absence of crypto-specific catalysts has amplified the importance of technical levels and momentum indicators for short-term trading decisions.
BTC Technical Analysis: Oversold Bounce Setup
Price Action Context
Bitcoin technical analysis reveals the cryptocurrency trading below all major moving averages, with the current BTC price of $101,891.11 sitting beneath the 7-day SMA at $106,934 and the 20-day SMA at $109,075. This positioning indicates short-term bearish momentum, though the proximity to the 200-day SMA at $110,003 suggests longer-term support remains intact.
The Bollinger Band position shows Bitcoin near the lower band at $102,483, with a %B reading of -0.0449 indicating oversold conditions. Volume patterns from Binance spot data suggest accumulation interest near current levels, potentially supporting a technical bounce.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI at 33.25 has entered oversold territory without reaching extreme levels, suggesting room for further decline but also increasing probability of a near-term bounce. The MACD histogram reading of -790.49 confirms bearish momentum, though the divergence between price and momentum indicators warrants attention.
Stochastic oscillators show %K at 16.88 and %D at 14.34, both in oversold territory and potentially setting up for a bullish crossover signal. The daily ATR of $3,937 indicates elevated volatility, providing both opportunity and risk for active traders.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $104,842 (24-hour high and near-term breakout level) • Support: $98,944 (24-hour low and psychological round number)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below the $98,944 support could trigger accelerated selling toward the $95,000-96,000 zone, where longer-term buyers may emerge. Conversely, a reclaim of $104,000 resistance would signal potential continuation toward the $107,000-109,000 area where multiple moving averages converge.
BTC Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin has shown mixed correlation patterns with traditional markets, with crypto-specific factors taking precedence over broader risk sentiment. The BTC price action has diverged from equity markets during recent sessions, suggesting independent technical dynamics are driving short-term moves.
Correlation with the broader cryptocurrency market remains high, with Bitcoin's direction likely to influence altcoin performance. Gold correlation has weakened, indicating reduced safe-haven demand for digital assets in the current environment.
Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A successful test of the $98,944-101,000 support zone combined with oversold momentum indicators could trigger a relief rally toward $106,000-107,000. Sustained volume above $4 billion during any bounce would confirm institutional interest and improve upside prospects.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold current support levels amid deteriorating momentum could extend the decline toward $95,000-96,000. Weakening volume during any bounce attempts would signal distribution and increase downside risk.
Risk Management
Traders should consider stops below $98,500 for long positions, with position sizing reflecting the elevated $3,937 daily ATR. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the $98,944-104,842 range, while longer-term investors should monitor the 200-day moving average for strategic entry points.
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