Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Critical Juncture as $100K Level Holds
Rongchai Wang Nov 05, 2025 13:43
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K as market signals caution. With ETFs outflows and defensive trading, the crypto market remains fragile yet not in full capitulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to stabilize around the $100,000 mark after a significant dip below key cost-basis levels, indicating a decline in demand and increased selling by long-term holders. According to Glassnode Insights, this development follows a break below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis of approximately $112,500, marking a shift from the previous bullish trend.
Market Overview
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a precarious state. Despite Bitcoin's price consolidating near $100,000, about 21% below its all-time high, approximately 71% of the supply remains profitable, suggesting a mid-cycle correction rather than a full-blown bear market. The Relative Unrealized Loss stands at 3.1%, indicating moderate stress but not deep capitulation.
Since July 2025, long-term holders have reduced their Bitcoin holdings by 300,000 BTC, continuing to sell even as prices decline. This contrasts with earlier in the cycle when sales occurred during rallies. Additionally, U.S. Spot ETFs have experienced steady outflows, ranging from $150 million to $700 million per day, contributing to diminished discretionary demand.
On-Chain and Market Insights
As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis, it faces a heightened risk of further declines towards lower structural supports, such as the Active Investors’ Realized Price near $88,500. This metric, which tracks the cost basis of actively circulating supply, is crucial during extended corrective phases.
Currently, about 71% of Bitcoin's supply is in profit, placing the market near the lower bound of the typical equilibrium range seen during mid-cycle slowdowns. A continued decline could push more supply into loss, potentially transitioning the market into a deeper bearish phase characterized by capitulation.
Institutional Demand and Trading Activity
Institutional demand has also softened, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording consistent outflows. This trend reflects a moderation in institutional capital allocation and reduced appetite for new exposure. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Bias across major exchanges indicates sustained net sell pressure, reinforcing the market's cooling tone.
In the derivatives market, the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has dropped from $338 million per month in April to $118 million per month. This reduction suggests a broad unwind in speculative positioning and a shift towards a more cautious, risk-off stance.
Options Market Sentiment
Options markets continue to show strong demand for puts, with elevated premiums at the $100K strike indicating traders' focus on protection rather than accumulation. This defensive posture is further highlighted by the modest rebound in implied volatility, confirming a cautious market sentiment.
Overall, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, with weak demand and limited signs of a sustained recovery. The next directional move will likely depend on whether renewed demand can absorb ongoing long-term holder distribution and reclaim the $112K–$113K region as firm support, or if sellers will extend the current downtrend.
For more detailed insights, visit the Glassnode Insights.
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