Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Key Support Amidst Market Adjustments
Rebeca Moen Oct 02, 2025 07:44
Bitcoin defends key support levels, with ETFs and long-term holders providing stability. Options markets reset post-expiry, setting the stage for cautious Q4 optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold a crucial on-chain support level at the short-term holder cost basis, according to Glassnode. As the cryptocurrency defends this position, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a cooling supply from long-term holders (LTHs) add layers of stability to the market structure.
On-Chain Dynamics
Since May 2025, Bitcoin has consistently defended the short-term holder cost basis, marking it as a significant pivot between bullish and bearish trends. The market faces resistance at the $118,000 level, a dense supply cluster where recent buyers might seek to exit. A breakthrough above this threshold could indicate a stronger demand absorbing the available supply, potentially paving the way for new highs.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) ratio has seen a steady decline, suggesting a reduction in speculative excess. This trend points towards a cooling market, where short-term holders are realizing fewer profits relative to the overall network activity. The Fear & Greed Index has also shifted towards neutral and fear territories, reflecting decreased risk appetite among investors.
ETF and Long-Term Holder Influence
The distribution from long-term holders has slowed, with their net position change moving towards neutral. This change signals a potential end to the consistent selling pressure seen in previous months. Concurrently, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed inflows after a period of volatility, indicating sustained institutional interest. Together, these factors suggest a stabilizing force within the market, potentially supporting a resilient price foundation.
Options Market Reset
The options market has experienced a significant reset following a record expiry, with open interest now rebuilding for Q4. Volatility has eased, and the options skew is nearing neutral, indicating a balanced risk outlook. Traders are showing cautious optimism, adding risk reversals while selling puts, aligning with seasonal trends often referred to as "Uptober."
Dealer gamma exposure remains balanced, reducing intraday volatility and helping stabilize Bitcoin's spot price. With no major expiries on the horizon, the market is positioned in a neutral state, awaiting new positioning strategies closer to future expiry dates.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's ability to maintain its short-term holder cost basis as a support level highlights its resilience amid market fluctuations. While the $114,000 to $118,000 range presents a significant resistance, the easing of long-term holder distribution and the resurgence of ETF inflows point towards a stabilizing demand structure. The options market's reset and the shift towards a more neutral stance suggest a market poised for cautious optimism, as it awaits stronger directional cues for Bitcoin's next move.
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