Bitcoin (BTC) Rebounds to $121K Amid Mixed Market Signals
Ted Hisokawa Aug 11, 2025 13:02
Bitcoin's price recovers to $121K, showing improved on-chain activity and derivatives sentiment. However, declining spot volumes and high profitability suggest cautious optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) has made a notable recovery, climbing back to $121,000 after dipping below $114,000 last week. This price rebound is accompanied by improved on-chain activity and derivatives sentiment, according to Glassnode. However, the optimism is tempered by declining spot trading volumes and a high profitability environment, which suggest caution.
Spot and Futures Market Dynamics
In the spot market, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 41.5 to 47.5, indicating a bounce from oversold conditions. Additionally, Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showed a recovery from heavy selling to near-neutral levels. Despite these positive signals, spot trading volume fell by 22% to $5.7 billion, highlighting a lack of broad market participation in the rally.
Meanwhile, the futures market experienced a slight reduction in open interest to $44.1 billion, with long-side funding rates slipping marginally but remaining elevated. Perpetual CVD increased to -$0.2 billion, reflecting a shift towards buy-side aggression, with leveraged traders displaying renewed confidence.
Options and ETF Market Trends
The options market saw a 6.7% rise in open interest to $42.4 billion, indicating growing trader engagement. The volatility spread contracted significantly to 10.45%, suggesting complacency in volatility pricing. The 25 Delta Skew eased but remained above its high band, showing ongoing demand for downside protection.
In the ETF market, net flows improved as outflows reduced by over half, although trading volume decreased by 27.7% to $13.7 billion. The ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio rose above its high band to 2.43, pointing to significant unrealized profits and the potential for profit-taking.
On-Chain Fundamentals
Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals strengthened, with active addresses rising above their high band to 793,000. Transfer volume remained steady at $8.5 billion, and fee volume increased by 10.3%, indicating heightened demand for transaction inclusion. Capital flows moderated slightly, with realized cap change dipping to 5.2%, yet staying above its high band. The short-term holder/long-term holder ratio and hot capital share remained stable, suggesting a balanced market structure.
Profitability metrics also improved, with the percentage of supply in profit at 94.1% and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) rising to 8.5%. The realized profit/loss ratio increased to 1.9, highlighting a dominance of profit-taking actions.
Overall, the BTC market has transitioned from seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent all-time highs. While momentum has returned, the situation requires close monitoring as elevated profitability and potential profit-taking could swiftly alter market sentiment.
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