Polymarket odds imply no Fed cuts in 2026 at 85% after AI risk-off note
A technical-analysis note said the AI trade’s bounce may be a head fake after a nearly 19% pullback in an AI-themed ETF, with weekly momentum turning bearish and more downside possible.
Polymarket odds put July Fed hold at 93% after inflation broadens report
A new report described inflation as “broadening out,” citing a Goldman economist and suggesting price pressures are spreading beyond a few categories.
Polymarket odds rise to 85% for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026
A macro roundup said Andy Burnham is set to enter Downing Street as the U.K.’s new prime minister as North Sea oil policy debate heats up.
Polymarket odds jump to 94% for no July Fed change after balance sheet note
A Deutsche Bank note this week cast the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff as bearish for the U.S. dollar, sparking fresh focus on July policy expectations.
Polymarket holds Sep 2026 Fed 'No change' at 58.5% despite hike chatter
A July 18 piece spotlights the live debate over whether the Fed will raise rates this month, nudging traders to weigh near-term chatter against September 2026 pricing.
Polymarket odds swing to 94% Fed hold after softer inflation lifts BTC mood
Crypto investment products reportedly ended an $8B outflow streak after weaker US inflation data brightened Bitcoin sentiment.
Polymarket sees September Fed hold odds at 60.5% as CLARITY Act touted
Lawmakers are pitching the CLARITY Act as a way to boost crypto innovation while adding regulatory certainty, according to a new report.
Polymarket prices Sept Fed hold at 62% as FX focus shifts to ECB vs Fed
In a euro market update, the currency held steady as traders reassessed how ECB and Fed rate expectations might diverge.
Polymarket odds jump to 96% for July Fed hold after UoM inflation expectations
A July University of Michigan survey update put 5-year consumer inflation expectations at 3.3% ahead of the Fed’s July 2026 decision.
Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 95.85% after 24pp jump on $66.7M
A new market note said Bitcoin’s second-half recovery hinges on four catalysts, with macro conditions a key swing factor rather than an immediate driver.