Polymarket prices 2026 Fed hike at 51.5% after 15-point drop
June US inflation data showed CPI slowing to 3.5% year on year from 4.2% in May, sending the dollar lower and cooling near-term Fed hike expectations.
Polymarket odds: July Fed hold at 93.5% after CPI cools hike fears
A macro note titled “US CPI report quietens Fed rate hike expectations” said the latest CPI eased pressure on the Fed to tighten ahead of the July 2026 meeting.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 dip to 80% on China export view
A PIMCO commentator said China’s move up the manufacturing value chain could keep exports growing and ease inflation abroad.
Polymarket odds: Mbappe leads 2026 Ballon d'Or at 33.5% on $7.1M
A report says Trump urged the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act ahead of a crucial vote on the crypto bill.
Polymarket odds for July Fed hold fall to 65.5% as CPI focus grows
Ahead of US CPI, FX desks described the yen as consolidating while dollar bulls waited on inflation data and Fed-linked headlines.
Polymarket: Fed hold at 53.5% as CPI/PPI week tests September odds
Markets face a packed slate this week as major banks kick off Q2 earnings and inflation data lands with CPI Tuesday and PPI Wednesday, plus Friday’s consumer sentiment.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 75.5% as hike risk lingers
A recent commentary warns a Fed rate hike could trigger an immediate stock selloff, even if history hints at a better longer-term read-through.
Polymarket prices 60% chance of 2026 Fed hike after weak June jobs report
June’s U.S. jobs report showed payrolls rising 57,000 versus 115,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.2% as participation slipped to 61.5%.
Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d'Or after +5.45pp
A new housing report says this spring’s buying season was underwhelming for a fourth year, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% after a late-February dip reversed following the US attack on Iran.
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike drop to 58.5% after AI inflation talk
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting cited tariffs and “AI-related price pressures” as drivers of higher core goods inflation, with energy and AI infrastructure demand adding to costs.