Interest Rates
USD stays firm, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cut Fed odds at 77.75%
A 2026-06-29 EUR/USD analysis said the U.S. dollar still holds a relative edge over the euro, keeping near-term risks tilted toward USD strength.
Risk-on mood lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5% on Polymarket
Broader markets stayed risk-on as traders tracked U.S.-Iran developments for any escalation that could jolt volatility and growth expectations.
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran strikes as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.71% to $69.72 after fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and a continued Strait of Hormuz blockade stoked supply fears.
BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket keeps 2026 no-cuts at 77%
Bank of America updated its outlook this week, raising global growth expectations and projecting 75 bps of additional Fed hikes even as inflation cools.
BIS flags debt and AI risks as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
On Sunday, the Bank for International Settlements warned that rising debt, an AI-fueled boom, and lingering financial fragilities could amplify shocks and complicate policy.
Trump taps Schroyer for ICE as Polymarket odds favor zero Fed cuts in 2026
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he will nominate former Oklahoma state trooper Lance Schroyer to lead ICE as the agency expands after a $75 billion funding boost.
Bitcoin stays above $60K as Polymarket puts July Fed hold odds at 80.5%
Bitcoin held above $60,000 as scrutiny grew over Strategy’s credit-sensitive funding model and what it could mean for crypto risk appetite if conditions tighten.
S&P reaffirms US AA+ as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On June 27, 2026, S&P affirmed the United States’ AA+ sovereign credit rating and kept its outlook stable.
May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May.
Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge climbed to a new three-year high, keeping pressure on policymakers and muddying the near-term rate outlook.