Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 29.5% on renewed strike reports
Reports say U.S. forces struck Iran for a ninth straight night amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions and explosions reported in multiple cities.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end slide to 52.5%
U.S. forces struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, Central Command said, heightening uncertainty around regional shipping and timelines.
Polymarket sees 53.5% odds US halts Iran offensive ops by Aug. 31
The U.S. military confirmed another American service member was killed in the war with Iran, raising the total to 17 as drones and missiles keep escalating after peace talks collapsed.
Polymarket prices 98.7% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
A report says Jerusalem is preparing to join fighting with Iran as the US weighs next steps, raising fears of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds on US invading Iran rise to 30.5% as No still leads
In East Jerusalem, a Knesset education chair’s surprise visit reportedly included vandalizing a school sign and vowing to shut the school, amid new laws targeting teachers and funding.
Polymarket sees US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 at 48.5% after Iran news
On July 19, Iran reported executing two anti-government protestors, adding political-pressure risk that can shift expectations for any “effective ceasefire” timeline.
Polymarket odds peg Israel-Iran ceasefire at 99.6% through July 18
Over the past year, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said it handled a record number of antisemitic incidents abroad, underscoring heightened security pressure beyond Israel’s borders.
Polymarket odds lift to 63.5% for US halting Iran ops by Aug. 31
Ukraine said a Russian ballistic-missile strike was the largest yet, a fresh sign of escalating conflict.
Polymarket odds hit 99% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
After U.S. forces wrapped an eighth day of airstrikes hitting IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, and maritime sites, attention stayed on whether tensions disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds slip to 48.5% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31
After two US service members were killed in Jordan, the US military launched new airstrikes on Iran targeting Revolutionary Guard-linked infrastructure as strike exchanges continued and the Strait of