Polymarket
Polymarket sees US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 at 48.5% after Iran news
On July 19, Iran reported executing two anti-government protestors, adding political-pressure risk that can shift expectations for any “effective ceasefire” timeline.
Polymarket odds peg Starmer at 99.45% in $66.9M market despite Trump news
A new report says Donald Trump urged Congress to add Iran to a Russia sanctions bill, calling it “in Graham’s honor.” Polymarket traders are watching whether geopolitical shocks move leadership-risk
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $52K at 99.95% for July 20
A recent analysis says Bitcoin’s rally followed softer headline inflation driven by cheaper energy, while core pressure and tariffs may be understated and oil is rebounding.
Polymarket odds: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as consensus softens
After a deadly Jordan attack on US troops, a report says the US struck Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in retaliation.
Polymarket holds steady: RFK Jr. 49% in GOP 2028 nominee market
A new AI-focused report on how technology took the field at the World Cup appeared in the feed, but offered no fresh political details tied to 2028.
Polymarket odds dip on Syrskyi exit by year-end as Kyiv faces mass strikes
Overnight, Russia fired 40+ missiles and 120 attack drones, with most aimed at Kyiv, as rescue and cleanup efforts continued, Zelensky said.
Polymarket odds lift to 63.5% for US halting Iran ops by Aug. 31
Ukraine said a Russian ballistic-missile strike was the largest yet, a fresh sign of escalating conflict.
Polymarket odds hit 99% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
After U.S. forces wrapped an eighth day of airstrikes hitting IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, and maritime sites, attention stayed on whether tensions disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds slip to 48.5% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31
After two US service members were killed in Jordan, the US military launched new airstrikes on Iran targeting Revolutionary Guard-linked infrastructure as strike exchanges continued and the Strait of
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 19% on $17.8M
Overnight, nearly 50 drones reportedly targeted Russia’s Moscow region, igniting fires at an oil depot in Noginsk and a Wildberries logistics site in Elektrostal.