Polymarket
Polymarket keeps Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights
Fresh live updates report the US and Iran traded attacks for a seventh straight night, underscoring an unresolved conflict. Polymarket traders care because the ceasefire ladder still puts the Aug.
Polymarket: US-Iran invasion odds jump to 27.5% on $44M volume
A report cited explosions in Yazd and other parts of Iran during what it called a latest wave of U.S. strikes, renewing escalation concerns.
Polymarket holds steady in 2028 GOP nominee market as Trump approval ticks up
A July 6–14, 2026 Napolitan News Service poll of 2,000 registered voters put President Donald Trump’s net job approval at -9 (44% approve, 53% disapprove), his best in about three months.
Polymarket prices 'History' at 95% for Argentina–Spain broadcast phrase ladder
A betting-focused preview says Spain’s defense fueled their World Cup run, noting France managed no shot on target until the 64th minute in a semi-final and pointing to one messy concession vs
Polymarket: Taiwan invasion odds drop to 3.95% as Middle East risks flare
A report said the US struck bridges in Iran, and Tehran hit a power and desalination plant in Kuwait as maritime incidents flared near Hormuz and Yemen after a ceasefire collapsed.
Polymarket Hormuz normal-traffic odds sink to 52.5% on escalation risks
An Iranian official reportedly threatened a “full-scale offensive” if US strikes continue, raising fears of wider escalation that could disrupt shipping.
Polymarket odds: Trump out by July 31 seen as long shot despite endorsement
A report said Donald Trump backed Lindsey Graham’s sister in a Republican Senate primary, highlighting GOP endorsement maneuvering.
Polymarket odds lift Le Pen to 33% in 2027 French election market
A new poll shows Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leading Republican Rick Jackson in Georgia’s open-seat governor’s race as turnout and crossover voting loom large.
Polymarket prices Sept Fed hold at 62% as FX focus shifts to ECB vs Fed
In a euro market update, the currency held steady as traders reassessed how ECB and Fed rate expectations might diverge.
Polymarket odds swing to Eizenkot at 49.5% as US–Israel logistics news hits
A report says the US told Israel it will send dozens more aerial refueling planes as it weighs strike options against Iran, with disputes over Ben-Gurion Airport crowding.