Polymarket
Polymarket odds put China-Taiwan invasion risk at 4% after drills report
Japan’s defense ministry said Chinese and Russian warships held joint live-fire drills inside Japan’s claimed EEZ in the Pacific, and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi disclosed the activity.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 26.5% on $45.7M volume
Near Second Thomas Shoal, Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed, injuring a Philippine sailor, as Washington condemned China’s conduct and Manila hosted regional talks.
Polymarket odds: Trump out by Jul 31 at 0.35% after Minnesota ruling
A Trump-nominated judge reportedly ruled against him in a key Minnesota case, fueling fresh legal chatter.
Polymarket odds for China–Taiwan clash before 2027 slip to 7.25%
In early July, Sri Lanka’s worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade prompted armed forces support, with air force drones and troops helping inspections after monsoon rains.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec.
Polymarket prices 16.5% Putin exit by June 2027 as ladder shifts long-dated
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking seven “shadow fleet” vessels in the Azov and Black Seas and hitting air defenses and energy sites, including Crimea.
Polymarket odds for Israel–Iran ceasefire ease to 99.65% after Kuwait claim
Iran said it targeted a US base in Kuwait with missiles, a headline that immediately nudged ceasefire-risk pricing in prediction markets.
Polymarket: Vance holds 19.85% in 2028 market as Trump stays 1.45%
Democrats are scrambling to counter Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on Iran, highlighting internal debate over how to respond to his rhetoric and actions.
Polymarket odds: Farage holds 95% in Clacton by-election market
Sen. Markwayne Mullin said federal authorities are actively pursuing a threat tied to a World Cup fan festival, signaling an ongoing security response.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
U.S. average gas prices climbed back above $4 as Washington intensified airstrikes against Iran and Iran attacked U.S.