According to @ki_young_ju, BTC faces a more bearish setup, and a strong recovery is unlikely for the next 3–6 months until macro liquidity returns in 2025. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He emphasizes that macro dollar liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle, noting tightening liquidity and ongoing selling in risk assets likely persisting until liquidity eases next year. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He adds that both market and on-chain metrics show weak liquidity now and that the classic on-chain bull cycle has ended. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He notes a sharp bounce toward around 100K is possible, but if that level does not break, the probability of another lower low increases. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He cites Luke Gromen’s view that a large US fiscal deficit and weakening foreign demand for Treasuries could leave the Treasury market unstable without fresh liquidity, implying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher when liquidity returns next year; he aligns with this view. Source: @ki_young_ju citing @LukeGromen on X, Nov 21, 2025. Trading implications: prioritize dollar-liquidity signals over on-chain cycle, monitor Treasury market stress, treat 100K as pivotal resistance, and expect range or downside until a clear liquidity inflection in 2025. Source: synthesis of @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, foreign official US Treasuries held in Federal Reserve custody fell to $2.78 trillion in October, the lowest level since 2012 (source: @KobeissiLetter). Foreign official holdings in Fed custody have decreased by $166 billion since March and are down $356 billion from the 2021 peak, indicating weakening foreign demand for US debt and increased diversification away from US Dollar assets (source: @KobeissiLetter). Gold has been a key beneficiary of this rotation, consistent with reserve managers diversifying away from US debt (source: @KobeissiLetter). Traders should monitor US Treasury yield moves and gold flows for positioning as this decline in official custody holdings underscores softer marginal demand for Treasuries and shifting reserve preferences (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @business, US Treasuries ended the week essentially flat as bulls and bears fought to a draw, with conflicting private-sector labor data leaving expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut in limbo (source: Bloomberg). The absence of a clear policy signal kept the rates outlook uncertain, offering no fresh directional cue for rate-sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH (source: Bloomberg).

According to @paoloardoino, Tether now holds 135 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries, ranking as the 17th-largest holder of U.S. government debt and surpassing South Korea. Source: Paolo Ardoino on X, Oct 29, 2025. For traders, the reported scale aligns with Tether’s disclosures that U.S. Treasuries are a primary component of USDT reserves, underscoring sizable liquid backing that can support redemption capacity and market liquidity during volatility. Sources: Paolo Ardoino on X, Oct 29, 2025; Tether reserve attestations.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the US Treasury–bitcoin parity is set at 1.4 million dollars per BTC, shared on X on Oct 3, 2025. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1974204794274525395. The post cites a reference from IIICapital but provides no methodology or supporting data beyond the parity figure. Source: https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1974135826843120064. For traders, the source post frames 1.4 million dollars as a long-term valuation reference rather than an immediate trading signal, as it includes no timeframe, catalysts, or risk parameters. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1974204794274525395.

According to @stonecoldpat0, the US policy appeal of USD stablecoins is to expand the buyer base for US Treasuries rather than to transition everything into stablecoins and then devalue them, which would also devalue USD itself; source: @stonecoldpat0. He calls the devaluation narrative scaremongering and asserts stablecoins are positioned to gain significant market share in coming years, with USD enjoying a head start due to market forces; source: @stonecoldpat0. For traders, his view points to tracking stablecoin market share and demand for T-bills as indicators for on-chain USD liquidity conditions that underpin crypto trading activity; source: @stonecoldpat0.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the worst bear market in US Treasuries alongside the post-Ukraine weaponization of USTs has accelerated a rotation into hard assets, with gold’s share of international reserves at multi-decade highs (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He states Bitcoin’s correlation to US Treasuries has collapsed to record lows while global banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutions disclosed meaningful allocations to Bitcoin ETFs via 13F filings, signaling growing institutional adoption that matters for liquidity and price discovery (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He highlights three trading-relevant advantages of BTC versus gold in a bond-focused portfolio: lower interest-rate sensitivity, tendency to outperform gold on down days for Treasuries, and reduced portfolio volatility and drawdowns when small BTC allocations are added to sovereign bond exposures (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He adds that while gold remains the stronger hedge versus equity risk, BTC is increasingly treated as an alternative reserve asset and a sovereign bond hedge, with examples including discussions by the Czech National Bank on BTC as a diversifier, Brazil’s proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and a US Executive Order that set a framework for digital assets (all as reported by @Andre_Dragosch) (source: @Andre_Dragosch). Trading takeaway: monitor BTC–UST correlation regimes, track 13F-reported ETF flows for positioning signals, and consider small BTC sleeves as a hedge to duration drawdowns in sovereign bond portfolios while maintaining gold for equity-hedge characteristics (source: @Andre_Dragosch).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, US Treasury bonds are no longer the de facto safe-haven asset and the world is transitioning to a new global monetary regime, challenging the traditional “intelligent investor” paradigm; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. He adds that “intelligent” company valuation methods will likely return, implying recent dislocations are regime-driven rather than fundamentals-led; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. For traders, this view signals a need to reassess bond-based hedges and safe-haven assumptions when managing crypto and equity risk exposure; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, the latest Federal Reserve minutes note that payment stablecoins may enhance payment efficiency and increase demand for U.S. Treasuries, highlighting growing policy awareness of their role in financial plumbing; Source: @rovercrc citing Federal Reserve minutes. For traders, broader acceptance of payment stablecoins implies potential growth in USDT and USDC reserves that are primarily invested in short-dated U.S. Treasuries, which historically coincides with deeper crypto liquidity and improved risk transfer; Source: Tether reserve attestations, Circle USDC reserve reports, Glassnode research on the Stablecoin Supply Ratio. Key signals to monitor include net issuance of USDT and USDC, aggregate stablecoin market cap and exchange balances, and BTC and ETH liquidity trends relative to stablecoin inflows; Source: Kaiko research on stablecoin flows and market depth.

According to Milk Road, Ethereum (ETH) compares favorably with BTC, gold, and U.S. Treasuries by offering a bond-like staking yield, faster on-chain settlement than card networks, 24/7 trading, programmability, and no centralized custodian or issuer, source: Milk Road. Ethereum provides protocol-level staking rewards paid in ETH to validators, giving holders a native yield if they stake, while Bitcoin (BTC) has no protocol-level staking or native yield, sources: Ethereum.org Staking; Bitcoin.org Developer Guide. Ethereum transactions achieve on-chain finality within minutes under proof-of-stake, whereas Visa’s network authorizes payments instantly for consumers but clears and settles net positions between issuers and acquirers on a next-day basis in ordinary course, sources: Ethereum.org documentation on finality; Visa Inc. Form 10-K. The Ethereum network operates continuously and supports programmable smart contracts for decentralized applications, enabling 24/7 on-chain activity and self-custody at the protocol level, sources: Ethereum.org What is Ethereum; Ethereum.org Accounts. U.S. Treasuries offer market-determined yields and defined auction/settlement schedules, and major traditional markets run on set trading hours, giving ETH a contrasting 24/7 settlement and programmable yield profile for traders to compare across assets, sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury Yield Curve and Auction Calendar; NYSE Trading Hours; Ethereum.org Staking.

According to @paoloardoino, Tether ranks among the top 18 holders of U.S. Treasuries, is within the top 40 holders of physical gold, and holds more than 100,000 BTC, highlighting large and diversified reserves that underpin USDT’s backing; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025. According to @paoloardoino, this mix of Treasuries, gold, and BTC suggests USDT liquidity is supported by sovereign debt plus hard-asset exposure while introducing direct sensitivity to BTC price moves—key for traders assessing stablecoin risk and crypto market liquidity; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025. According to @paoloardoino, traders should watch U.S. yields, gold prices, and BTC volatility as drivers that can influence Tether’s reserve valuation and perceived stability in crypto markets; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, stablecoins now hold $149 billion in US Treasuries, ranking as the 18th-largest external holder. These holdings have increased by approximately $58 billion, or 64 percent, since Q1 2023. During the same period, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has doubled to a record $240 billion. This significant growth in Treasury-backed reserves highlights the increasing institutional confidence in stablecoins and signals deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance. For crypto traders, these trends suggest enhanced market liquidity and growing demand for stablecoin-based trading pairs, which could impact price stability and trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies (Source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, stablecoins now hold $149 billion in US Treasuries, making them the 18th-largest external holder. Since Q1 2023, these holdings have increased by approximately $58 billion, a 64% rise. During the same period, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has doubled to a record $240 billion. This rapid growth highlights the increasing integration of stablecoins with traditional financial instruments and provides added liquidity and stability to the broader cryptocurrency market, potentially supporting trading activity and investor confidence.

According to @rovercrc, Tether has reported a net profit of $4.9 billion for Q2 and now holds $127 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest global holders. This significant profit and treasury accumulation highlight Tether's growing financial influence and stability, which could further strengthen confidence in USDT and affect stablecoin demand and trading volumes across crypto markets. Traders should monitor USDT flows, as Tether's expanding reserves may impact liquidity and risk perceptions in both centralized and DeFi markets (source: @rovercrc).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the breakdown of US Treasuries as a traditional safe-haven asset is pushing capital flows into hard assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), gold, and US equities. This shift is expected to fuel higher and potentially excessive valuations across these markets, creating a 'new normal' environment for traders to monitor. The movement of the safe-haven premium into crypto and equities may increase volatility and present both opportunities and risks for active traders. Source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @rovercrc, the bull case for Bitcoin (BTC) and gold is strengthening after Donald Trump stated on social media that economic growth would offset deficits from his proposed tax-and-spending package. This approach to fiscal policy, which could add trillions to the national debt, has prompted analysts like Will Clemente to question the value of holding long-term U.S. Treasuries, as cited in the report. Clemente's analysis suggests that the prospect of loose fiscal policy and currency debasement makes hard assets like Bitcoin an essential hedge against inflation. Following the comments, BTC traded with volatility in a range between $107,194 and $108,489, with technical analysis from the source indicating established support at $107,300 and a significant volume peak that confirmed upward momentum.

According to @FoxNews, the crypto market is largely ignoring President Trump's renewed tariff threats, with Coinbase analysts noting that markets have disregarded these potential economic risks. A more significant trading signal emerged from Trump's fiscal policy stance, where he stated that robust economic growth would offset deficits from a proposed $3.8 trillion tax-cut bill. Crypto analyst Will Clemente highlighted this on X, suggesting such loose fiscal policy strengthens the bull case for hard assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold as hedges against potential inflation and currency debasement, while making long-term U.S. Treasuries less attractive. From a technical standpoint, BTC has established support around $107,300, trading in a daily range between $107,194 and $108,489, with BTCUSDT recently priced at $107,631.72.

According to Crypto Rover, the Federal Reserve is easing Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) restrictions, allowing banks to buy unlimited US Treasuries without capital requirements (source: Twitter @rovercrc, June 22, 2025). This policy acts as 'hidden money printing,' increasing liquidity in financial markets. For traders, this shift could boost risk asset demand, including Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, as banks have more flexibility to support Treasury purchases. Market participants should watch for increased volatility and potential upward momentum in crypto prices as liquidity flows into digital assets, mirroring effects seen in previous quantitative easing cycles.

According to @username, the US treasury ETF $TLT is showing a bullish setup as it forms a weekly swing low, with consensus expecting US long end yields to rise. However, real yields remain at 2% and core inflation (CPI) is projected to decline further due to a recession led by the housing sector, with shelter making up 36% of CPI. This macro backdrop is driving positive sentiment for US treasuries and $TLT, which could attract traders seeking safe-haven assets or portfolio hedges. Source: @username on Twitter.

According to Edward Dowd, a shift towards risk-off sentiment is emerging, with $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) highlighted as a potential beneficiary (source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 30, 2025). Historically, risk-off moves drive capital from equities and risk assets into safe havens like US Treasuries, leading to a rise in $TLT. For cryptocurrency traders, this trend typically correlates with increased volatility and potential downside for crypto assets as liquidity is withdrawn from high-risk markets (source: Phinance Technologies Economic Report). Monitoring $TLT price action can provide early signals for crypto market direction, helping traders adjust positions accordingly.