Bitcoin: 50% Drawdown From 2025 ATH Fits Cycle History

Bitcoin trades at $60,651.88 after a 50% slide from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, a move that remains milder than prior cycle crashes of 77-93%. Past peaks show 2011 at $31 with a 93% drop, 2013 at $1,163 with an 87% decline, 2017 at $19,783 with an 84% fall, and 2021 at $68,789 with a 77% correction, each followed by fresh record highs. On the 4h chart BTC holds a bearish structure beneath EMA50 at $67,508 and EMA200 at $73,823 while RSI at 25.63 signals oversold conditions and MACD prints a death cross at -2,395; price sits inside the Bollinger band with lower support at $59,115, suggesting any bounce toward upper resistance at $67,779 faces immediate rejection before deeper tests of the 50-EMA confluence. Historical crypto market crash patterns and BTC price prediction models both point to repeated recoveries after comparable drawdowns, though forward outcomes stay data-dependent.