In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, a recent analysis has spotlighted Bitcoin as potentially one of the most undervalued assets in recent history. According to trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the fair value of Bitcoin, calculated based on liquidity metrics, stands at an impressive $165,000. However, the current market price hovers around $90,000, creating what he describes as the biggest mispriced condition seen in markets for quite some time. This disparity echoes previous tumultuous periods like the COVID-19 market crash, the FTX exchange collapse, and the 2018 crypto winter bottom, all of which preceded significant rallies. For traders eyeing Bitcoin trading opportunities, this insight suggests a substantial upside potential, with the price gap indicating room for growth as liquidity conditions normalize. Investors should monitor key support levels around $85,000 to $88,000, where buying interest has historically emerged during dips, and resistance at $100,000, which could act as a psychological barrier before pushing toward higher valuations.

Historical Comparisons and Market Indicators for BTC Trading

Diving deeper into the historical parallels, the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 saw Bitcoin plummet to around $4,000 before surging to new all-time highs above $60,000 by early 2021, driven by unprecedented liquidity injections from global central banks. Similarly, the FTX crash in November 2022 triggered a sharp decline to $15,000 levels, only for BTC to recover dramatically, reaching over $70,000 within a year amid improving market sentiment and institutional adoption. The 2018 bottom, when Bitcoin traded as low as $3,200, marked the end of a prolonged bear market, paving the way for the 2019 bull run. These events highlight how mispricing due to liquidity crunches often leads to explosive rebounds. In today's context, on-chain metrics such as the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, show readings similar to those bottoms, suggesting undervaluation. Trading volumes on major exchanges have been robust, with daily BTC spot volumes exceeding $30 billion in recent sessions as of late 2025 data points, indicating growing interest. For active traders, this could mean focusing on long positions with stop-losses below $80,000, targeting initial profits at $120,000, while watching for RSI indicators crossing above 50 to confirm bullish momentum.

Trading Strategies Amid Liquidity-Driven Valuations

From a trading perspective, the liquidity-based fair value model emphasizes how global money supply and crypto market inflows influence Bitcoin's true worth. With central banks maintaining accommodative policies post various economic disruptions, liquidity has flooded into risk assets, yet Bitcoin's price lags behind this fair value estimate. This creates intriguing opportunities for swing traders and long-term holders alike. Consider pairing BTC with stablecoins like USDT for volatility hedging, or exploring derivatives markets where open interest in Bitcoin futures has hit record highs, surpassing $40 billion according to aggregated exchange data from late November 2025. Key trading pairs such as BTC/USD and BTC/ETH show relative strength, with ETH underperforming slightly, potentially offering arbitrage plays. Market sentiment, gauged by the Fear and Greed Index, sits at 'greed' levels around 70, but the mispricing suggests further upside if macroeconomic factors align, such as favorable U.S. Federal Reserve decisions. Traders should also track whale activity, with large wallet movements indicating accumulation phases, as seen in transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC in single transactions during this period.

Looking at broader implications, this undervaluation could ripple into altcoin markets, boosting tokens correlated with Bitcoin's performance. Institutional flows, including ETF inflows that have amassed over $50 billion in assets under management for Bitcoin products as of 2025 reports, reinforce the bullish case. However, risks remain, such as regulatory headwinds or sudden liquidity withdrawals, which could exacerbate downside volatility. For those analyzing stock market correlations, Bitcoin's movement often mirrors tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where AI-driven stocks have surged, potentially dragging crypto higher. In summary, this mispriced condition presents a compelling case for strategic entries, with a focus on risk management and real-time monitoring of liquidity indicators to capitalize on what could be a historic buying opportunity in the Bitcoin market.