Bitcoin: Cycle Low Signal Fired Two Months Ago

Bitcoin triggered a statistical cycle low in March 2026 according to the Glassnode Cycle Extremes indicator, matching the exact confluence seen at the FTX bottom and 2023 banking crisis lows.

The four-oscillator aggregate hit extremes across MVRV Ratio, aSOPR, Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk, firing when three of four reached ±0.8 to ±1.0 standard deviations from long-term means. Most traders still eye an October 2026 bottom while on-chain data already marked the structural reversal.

BTC trades at $77570.82 inside the Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $78079.89. Price sits below the EMA50 at $78131.95 yet above the EMA200 at $77378.73, confirming a bearish trend structure, while RSI at 49.54 remains neutral and MACD at -151.6 shows a bullish golden cross. This setup points to a probable healthy retracement toward the 50-EMA support before any continuation higher, keeping the structural floor intact despite surface weakness.