Bitcoin: PnL Cycles Extend Bear Market to 2027

Bitcoin investors face extended pain after profit-taking cascades, with historical BTC PnL cycles showing 18-month drawdowns that point to a bear market reversal indicator only when unrealized profits climb and realized profits drop.

Ki Young Ju notes the October 2025 trend shift leaves the cycle bottoming near early 2027, and current data confirms the setup remains incomplete. On the 4h chart BTC trades at $73631.15 inside a bearish structure below both EMA50 at $75566.1 and EMA200 at $76862.56; momentum sits neutral with RSI at 37.52 while MACD registers a bullish golden cross at -792.66, yet price hugs the lower half of the Bollinger band whose upper resistance rests at $76833.21, suggesting any short-term bounce will likely stall before testing that level and then retrace toward the 50-EMA support near $75566.