According to @GreeksLive, BTC has surged significantly following the weekly settlement and is nearing $74,000, the upper boundary of its trading range since February. Despite this, the options market has shown a modest reaction, with BTC’s implied volatility for expiring options below 50% and ETH’s below 70%. Large-volume call options make up less than 30% of total trading volume, indicating the market has not fully priced in the rally. A decisive breakout above $75,000 could signal a sustained rally, though this remains challenging due to low liquidity over the weekend.

According to GreeksLive, Bitcoin (BTC) options forward implied volatility (IV) has dropped to 24% around March 15, with a noticeable increase expected around March 20 due to the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The rest of the volatility curve remains flat, showing no significant term premium. Additionally, inflation data, expected shortly, is anticipated to have a muted impact.

According to @GreeksLive, the disruption to global oil shipments caused by the U.S.-Israel military operation in the Strait of Hormuz is the key macro event influencing markets. This has led to a significant increase in implied volatility across major maturities. Currently, BTC's short-term implied volatility has exceeded 65%, while ETH's has risen above 80%, marking recent peaks. The market anticipates heightened volatility this month, with a noticeable decline in skew indicating growing demand for downside protection.

According to glassnode, the skew index, which measures options market asymmetry using call versus put implied volatility (IV), indicates a shift in market dynamics. The 1-week maturity remains in put asymmetry but is transitioning toward a neutral stance. Meanwhile, longer maturities are moving into call asymmetry, suggesting traders are positioning for selective upside potential.

According to @glassnode, the At-The-Money (ATM) Implied Volatility (IV), which reflects the market's expected price movements, has sharply declined from recent highs to approximately 48% across maturities. This decline suggests that traders are no longer anticipating an imminent crash in the cryptocurrency market, indicating reduced panic and more stable sentiment.

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin's one-month implied volatility has dropped below realized volatility, indicating that BTC has been more volatile than options pricing anticipated. If realized volatility remains high, implied volatility may face upward pressure, potentially impacting options trading strategies.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) implied volatility is at 75%, the highest since the spot ETF launch in 2024 and now above gold volatility; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X quoting @dgt10011. He added that the current pain is part of the process for BTC to make new highs and that the melt-up will be fast; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X.

According to @glassnode, implied volatility spiked as the selloff accelerated, with short-dated IV leading the move, indicating the front end bore the brunt of risk repricing (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, the previously extreme downside premium has reset, showing that volatility skew normalized from panic levels (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, overall IV remains elevated versus pre-move conditions, confirming that risk premia in crypto options are still priced above prior baselines (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode data, elevated front-end IV typically implies richer short-tenor option premiums and higher hedging costs, so traders may prefer defined-risk structures or selective long volatility exposure until term structure cools (source: @glassnode).

According to glassnode, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and a hotter-than-expected PPI triggered a hawkish shock that pushed commodities and crypto lower. According to glassnode, BTC options data sheds light on positioning, implied volatility, and sentiment beneath the move.

According to @GreeksLive, the first monthly options expiration of 2026 arrives tomorrow with over 25% of options positions set to expire. According to @GreeksLive, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and there are no major near-term catalysts, keeping price action stable with implied volatility muted into expiry. According to @GreeksLive, this setup indicates a steady tape around the expiration window with IV remaining compressed.

According to @glassnode, as Bitcoin (BTC) rallied roughly 8% over a few days in mid-January, the 1-week 25-delta options skew shifted toward neutral from a deep put bias, signaling a front-end skew reaction. According to @glassnode, this move reflects increased demand for near-dated calls but should not be automatically read as strong directional conviction. According to @glassnode, traders should be cautious interpreting short-dated call flow and avoid assuming a sustained bullish trend solely from front-end skew behavior.

According to @glassnode, the volume put call ratio and divergence across option skews confirm real upside demand concentrated in front-end expiries, with flows focused in short-dated crypto options while risk was not repriced across maturities. source: @glassnode tweet https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2014655280198373525 According to @glassnode, this indicates upside buying pressure in near-term maturities while longer-dated implied volatility and skew remained anchored relative to the front end. source: @glassnode tweet https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2014655280198373525, source: glassno.de/4pXThWi

According to @glassnode, at-the-money implied volatility was sold as price moved higher, showing gamma sellers monetized the rally and dampened follow-through, source: @glassnode, glassno.de/3Zqm3UD. @glassnode notes this volatility profile is not typical of sustained breakouts, indicating limited continuation quality for the current move, source: @glassnode. Traders chasing continuation setups should treat the breakout as fragile until volatility dynamics turn supportive, source: @glassnode.

According to @glassnode, the 1-week implied volatility heatmap has shifted toward colder colors over the past two weeks, marking the lower end of recent IV ranges for short-dated options; link: glassno.de/49GFUDI; source: @glassnode. According to @glassnode, the cooling is broad-based across calls and puts and across all deltas, indicating it is not confined to one side of the options book; source: @glassnode.

According to @glassnode, crypto options implied volatility is compressing again across maturities, signaling less demand for crash protection and aggressive upside hedges while keeping the volatility curve under pressure, source: @glassnode. Short-dated IV still reacts to spot moves, but spikes are quickly sold, maintaining subdued volatility across the term structure, source: @glassnode.

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin is retesting the 90K level after a strong start to the year, with the options market reaction being evaluated through implied volatility, skew, and recent options flow (source: Glassnode, Jan 9, 2026). Glassnode highlights these three metrics as key signals for positioning around 90K, directing traders to track volatility shifts, skew changes, and flow concentration for near-term risk appetite and directional bias (source: Glassnode, Jan 9, 2026).

According to @GreeksLive, 21,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.07, a maximum pain point at $90,000, and $1.9 billion notional value, while 126,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point at $3,100, and $390 million notional value, totaling nearly $2.4 billion or about 7% of open interest, which is a relatively minor expiry for the week, source: @GreeksLive. The post-annual settlement rebound saw a pullback this week, but the recent downward trend in BTC and ETH has eased and sentiment is improving, with BTC’s $90,000 and ETH’s $3,000 psychological levels cited as strong supports, source: @GreeksLive. Key options metrics show BTC implied volatility is stable versus pre-Christmas, with main-term IV around 40%, while ETH IV has declined with main-term IV at 55%, highlighting an IV divergence traders should note, source: @GreeksLive. Block trading remained elevated, accounting for over 70% of today’s total options volume, driven by new position-building demand, source: @GreeksLive. Market makers and active traders reportedly hold substantial cash and are primarily positioning in BTC month-end call options and ETH month-end put options, indicating targeted directional and hedging flows into month-end, source: @GreeksLive.

According to @ai_9684xtpa, a trader bought 660 BTC 120,000 strike call options on Deribit for about 0.86 million USD and 660 BTC 80,000 strike put options for about 1.5 million USD, both expiring on March 27, 2026, for a total outlay near 2.36 million USD, and the author noted these strikes were roughly 28,000 above and 12,000 below spot at the time. Source: @ai_9684xtpa on X, Jan 7, 2026. This positioning is a classic long strangle that aims to profit from a large move in either direction and typically benefits from rising implied volatility. Source: Investopedia long strangle strategy. The concentration at 120,000 and 80,000 sets clear reference levels to watch for potential gamma hedging flows and volatility clustering into expiry. Source: Cboe Options Education on gamma and dealer hedging dynamics. The author added that options whales have become more active recently, which can lift short term implied volatility and impact order book depth around key strikes. Source: @ai_9684xtpa on X, Jan 7, 2026. Traders should note that if BTC stays between the two strikes into March 27, time decay erodes long option value and returns can suffer if realized volatility lags implied volatility. Source: Deribit Insights on theta decay and strangle outcomes.

According to @QCPgroup, BTC options flows are turning constructive with put skew compressing and notable demand for Jan 30, 2026 100K calls alongside topside exposure via straddles, as reported by QCP Group on X on Jan 5, 2026 and in their Insights post qcpgroup.com/insights/asia-colour-183. QCP Group adds that if spot continues to grind higher, the probability of a gamma-assisted extension increases, as stated by QCP Group on X on Jan 5, 2026. QCP Group also notes that recent U.S. sessions have repeatedly faded rallies, keeping positioning disciplined, as reported by QCP Group on X on Jan 5, 2026.

According to @GreeksLive, the FOMC minutes at 19:00 UTC will offer detailed insight into members’ views on growth, inflation, and rate projections, serving as a key input for markets to gauge policy direction (source: @GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, after last Friday’s annual options settlement, block trades still represent a significant share due to reduced retail activity during the holiday period and the need to reestablish positions post-settlement (source: @GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, put blocks have stayed elevated following weak fourth-quarter performance, while implied volatility has not yet rebounded and may recover next week as participants return (source: @GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, overall liquidity remains subdued and sentiment is pessimistic this week, with limited opportunity, making options selling to capture theta the preferred strategy (source: @GreeksLive).