According to @rovercrc, the trading thesis contrasts Bitcoin’s fixed 21,000,000 BTC cap with elastic fiat supply, highlighting a long-term scarcity case for BTC positioning (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million and the block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, reducing new issuance and net supply growth (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide). Major fiat currencies such as USD have no predetermined maximum supply; central banks can expand the monetary base via tools like open market operations and quantitative easing during policy easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve Education; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). For traders, the declining BTC issuance relative to expandable fiat supply is frequently cited in institutional allocation frameworks as a scarcity-driven rationale, while acknowledging BTC’s high volatility and macro liquidity sensitivity (source: Fidelity Digital Assets research; Federal Reserve research on liquidity conditions).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the crypto market is at the beginning of the macro cycle rather than the end, which shifts near-term BTC trading catalysts toward macro liquidity and rates rather than event-led narratives (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Bitcoin halving has become less important for price action, implying that halving-driven strategies may carry lower edge versus macro sensitivity in the current phase (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders who ignore macro-cycle positioning risk underperforming as beta and flows react more to broader economic conditions than the supply schedule (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, USD weakness historically aligns with an expansion in global money supply, and during these liquidity upswings BTC is typically the first mover, with the same setup unfolding today, source: @cas_abbe on X.

According to @cas_abbe, if the pattern persists into Q4 2025, BTC is expected to break to new highs first, ETH to advance once BTC stabilizes, and altcoins to rotate later with their strongest gains at the end of the liquidity cycle. Source: @cas_abbe. For trading, this sequence favors early focus on BTC breakout setups, a pivot to ETH as BTC volatility compresses, and late-cycle momentum positioning in altcoins. Source: @cas_abbe.

According to @cas_abbe, crypto is tracking global liquidity rather than moving in isolation, with a weakening U.S. dollar and rising global M2 providing a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s next leg higher; source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. The trading takeaway is to monitor the USD trend (DXY) and global M2 growth as leading signals for BTC momentum, summarized as dollar down, liquidity up, Bitcoin next; source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, rising global M2 historically aligned with BTC upside in 2020 when BTC advanced from roughly $5K to $65K as M2 surged, while a flat M2 backdrop in 2023 aligned with BTC consolidation, and renewed M2 expansion in 2025 aligns with BTC holding above $100K, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, traders can treat global M2 trend as a top-down risk gauge for BTC direction by monitoring M2 acceleration or deceleration to anticipate momentum shifts and by viewing $100K as a key psychological level while liquidity rises, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, an actionable approach is to track global M2 YoY and 3-month annualized changes, set alerts around the $100K spot level and derivatives funding when M2 inflects, and align position sizing with the liquidity regime implied by M2 trends, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates soon and record-high US money supply and national debt could accelerate a liquidity flywheel into Bitcoin (BTC) (source: @rovercrc on X, Aug 25, 2025). Traders should verify policy timing and guidance directly via the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statements, minutes, and economic projections before positioning (source: Federal Reserve). For confirmation, monitor US real yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY); sustained declines often coincide with stronger risk-asset performance during easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review). Track BTC market plumbing around meetings: spot volumes, perpetual funding, and CME futures open interest to gauge if capital is rotating into crypto on policy changes (source: CME Group; Glassnode). If the Fed maintains restrictive policy and real yields or DXY rise, downside pressure on BTC historically increases, so define invalidation levels and adjust position sizing accordingly (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, China injected about $98B of liquidity this week, highlighting a renewed global liquidity impulse (source: @MilkRoadDaily). The source reports global M2 money supply has climbed nearly 4% over the past three months, a backdrop they link to historical outperformance in Bitcoin (BTC) when M2 expands (source: @MilkRoadDaily). For traders, the source implies that BTC’s beta to global liquidity is turning constructive, making the trajectory of Chinese liquidity operations and aggregate global M2 momentum key drivers to monitor near term (source: @MilkRoadDaily).

According to @milesdeutscher, the BTC price is closely tracking the direction of global M2 liquidity, with a BTC vs M2 chart playing out even if not point-for-point exact. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025. He describes Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge, implying that expansions in global liquidity tend to support BTC while liquidity tightening creates headwinds. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025. For trading, this positions global M2 trend as a macro indicator to monitor for BTC directional bias and risk management, aligning BTC with the global liquidity cycle. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, ETH has experienced exceptionally strong monthly returns, signaling a potential kickstart to a new crypto cycle. He emphasizes that the current liquidity cycle is proving more influential than the traditional four-year cycle for Ethereum and broader altcoin markets. This shift may drive significant trading opportunities for ETH and altcoins, indicating a bullish environment for traders seeking momentum and rapid gains (source: Michaël van de Poppe).

According to AltcoinGordon, traders should prepare for significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market once central banks begin aggressive money printing, a scenario he asserts is inevitable (Source: @AltcoinGordon, May 20, 2025). Historically, increased fiat liquidity has driven Bitcoin and altcoin prices higher, as seen in previous quantitative easing cycles. This creates a potential opportunity for crypto traders to anticipate bullish momentum across major assets, especially as inflation hedges become more attractive. Monitoring central bank policy signals and liquidity indicators remains critical for timely trade entries.