DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds put Starmer at 97.65% in 'next leader out' market
A recent analysis titled “No end in sight for new Iran war” argues the conflict is far from ending.
Polymarket: Trump out by July 31 priced at 0.55% as Senate bill fight simmers
In a Senate vote, Democrats blocked a $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill, signaling a near-term legislative standoff and procedural uncertainty.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.95% as Trump stays near 1%
About a month before Florida’s GOP primary, new polling shows Rep. Byron Donalds leading the field after repeated Trump endorsements.
Polymarket odds steady: RFK Jr. 49% for GOP 2028 nominee after Trump report
A report says Donald Trump backtracked on a proposed 20% toll demand tied to the Strait of Hormuz, but traders didn’t meaningfully reprice 2028 GOP nominee expectations.
Polymarket holds at 49% for RFK Jr. in 2028 GOP nominee market
On 2026-07-14, a Trump-focused piece titled “Donald Trump Presidency - Politico” was published, though the snippet offers no contract-specific drivers.
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.95% as 2028 leader, Trump at 1.35%
Donald Trump is expected to give a prime-time speech focusing on Iran and election integrity, a scheduled event that leaves room for markets to handicap expectations beforehand.
Polymarket pegs Starmer at 98% to be next leader out before 2027
New York is gearing up for a 2027 constitutional referendum that would allow mid-decade redistricting, with New York City turnout seen as pivotal to the outcome.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.95% as tape weakens after Graham report
Sen. Lindsey Graham was reported dead at 71, reshaping Senate math and looming fights like Todd Blanche’s July 15–16 hearings.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.85% as Texas poll shifts focus
A Texas-focused poll finds Hispanic respondents now angrier about Trump’s deportations after previously swinging toward him, putting immigration enforcement at the center of a shifting state
Polymarket prices Starmer at 98.5% in next leader out before 2027 market
A July 9–10 HarrisX poll of 1,019 registered voters found higher self-reported 2026 midterm voting intent among Trump/MAGA Republicans than Democrats, even as ballot tests leaned Democratic.
Polymarket prices 4% chance Trump acquires Greenland by 2027 as odds dip
A party-process story in Maine about Democrats applying 2024 lessons and a replacement process involving Platner is the latest headline tied to the Greenland question, but it offers no concrete
Polymarket odds show Vance leading 2028 field at 19.85%
A published analysis featuring CNN’s Harry Enten warns a “Democratic Socialist primary revolt” could become “a new Tea Party, but it’s on steroids,” reshaping coalitions and primary outcomes.
Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3%
On July 8, 2026, Donald Trump reportedly called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, without detailing how or when it would happen.
Gaza strike report fails to move Polymarket, RFK Jr holds 49% for 2028 GOP
A report said an Israeli strike in Gaza killed an organizer of a World Cup public screening just before kickoff. Polymarket traders are watching for any ripple into U.S.
US Iran strike report jolts Polymarket 2028 race as Vance holds 20.05%
A report said the United States struck Iran after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with no immediate official confirmation or Iranian response.
