CHINA TAIWAN
Chinese survey ship near Taiwan pulls Polymarket clash odds to 5.5%
From June 16–18, the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 22 ran an oceanographic survey east of Taiwan that U.S. experts said could aid military planning.
China patrol near Taiwan draws Taipei rebuke as Polymarket holds England 39.5%
On July 4, China said it launched a new coast guard patrol east of Taiwan, a move Taipei condemned as illegal while tracking two Chinese ships near Hualien.
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%
On July 1, 2026, a TV report said the Iran war is redirecting tourists from the Middle East to Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Spain, though higher costs and fuel prices still bite.
Philippines pitches GBA gateway as Polymarket Taiwan invasion odds slip to 14.5%
At the GBA-Asean Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, Philippine trade secretary Cristina Aldeguer-Roque said Manila aims to be a gateway for Greater Bay Area firms entering Southeast Asia.
Odds dip on China-Taiwan invasion bet as Polymarket prices Yes at 5.85%
On June 24, 2026, a feed item carried only a Hong Kong Happy Valley Race 1 result entry, with no cross-strait security update attached.
