FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. "The Federal Reserve System was created on December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law." Federal Reserve has control over monetary policy exclusively for the benefit of the United States. Typical monetary functions are money issuance, money price, interest rate, and more. Since the US Dollar has served as the de facto world currency. Federal Reserve has inevitable influences on the stability of the monetary and financial system and monetary policies of other countries.
Fed minutes loom as Polymarket no-cut 2026 odds slip to 77.55%
The US Dollar stayed resilient heading into a week with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and new US jobless claims, key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations.
Soft dollar outlook lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July at 89.5%
This week’s US dollar forecast said the greenback looks softer while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to pivot from its stance.
Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts
After weak US nonfarm payrolls data, gold extended gains as investors reassessed how much room the Federal Reserve has left to keep tightening.
Jobs report resets July Fed outlook as Polymarket pegs no-change at 90.5%
A MUFG-cited research note says the latest US jobs data has reset expectations for the Fed’s path, reshaping positioning and dollar dynamics ahead of upcoming decisions.
Yen steadies on intervention talk as Polymarket sees 67.5% Fed hold
The Japanese yen steadied as traders weighed rising risks of official currency-market intervention and softer expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
AUD/JPY steadies near 112 as Polymarket tilts 53.5% to no Fed hike in 2026
A July 3 technical note said AUD/JPY hovered around 112.00 but stayed below key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt despite the pause.
Cooler June jobs report lifts Polymarket Fed hold odds to 90.5%
On Thursday, U.S. stocks split after June payrolls rose just 57,000 and jobless rate hit 4.2%, cooling expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Strategist backs quieter Fed as Polymarket hold odds jump to 79.5%
In a recent segment, strategist Kenny Polcari said a less vocal Federal Reserve would foster more disciplined markets and expects Kevin Warsh to keep rates steady.
Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%
Mexico’s central bank survey showed private economists now expect lower inflation, reinforcing a softer price outlook that can ripple into global rate assumptions.
Kocher flags easing inflation as Polymarket cuts 2026 Fed hike odds to 54.5%
At 08:42 on July 1, 2026, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said European inflation is stabilizing as Middle East tensions ease, but uncertainty remains high.
Euro slips on cooler inflation as Polymarket boosts Fed hold odds to 79.5%
After fresh euro zone inflation data signaled cooling prices, the euro extended its reversal and slipped below 1.1400.
Crypto rebound lifts risk focus as Polymarket sees 78% odds of 0 Fed cuts
Stellar and Pyth Network extended a rebound even as the broader crypto market stayed stressed, offering a rare bright spot in a risk-off tape.
Warsh speaks after hawkish debut as Polymarket no-cuts bet slips to 78%
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will appear at an ECB forum panel in Portugal, his first public remarks since his policy-meeting debut.
Global crypto rules near July shift Polymarket to 79.5% Fed hold in 2026
Late June and early July bring new crypto rule deadlines in the EU, UK, Australia and California, with Europe’s MiCA transition ending July 1 and firms facing authorization pressure.
MUFG warns yen intervention risk as Polymarket sees 80.5% Fed hold in July
A MUFG analysis warned that rising Fed hawkishness is renewing pressure on the yen and raising the odds of Japanese intervention, especially if moves turn rapid.
