GEOPOLITICS
Chinese survey ship near Taiwan pulls Polymarket clash odds to 5.5%
From June 16–18, the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 22 ran an oceanographic survey east of Taiwan that U.S. experts said could aid military planning.
China patrol near Taiwan draws Taipei rebuke as Polymarket holds England 39.5%
On July 4, China said it launched a new coast guard patrol east of Taiwan, a move Taipei condemned as illegal while tracking two Chinese ships near Hualien.
Sha Tin race feed misfire as Polymarket Taiwan invasion Yes slips to 3.65%
A July 1, 2026 feed entry lists a Sha Tin Race 1 result for the “RACING GOES ON HANDICAP” with no snippet and no Taiwan-related details.
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%
On July 1, 2026, a TV report said the Iran war is redirecting tourists from the Middle East to Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Spain, though higher costs and fuel prices still bite.
Philippines pitches GBA gateway as Polymarket Taiwan invasion odds slip to 14.5%
At the GBA-Asean Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, Philippine trade secretary Cristina Aldeguer-Roque said Manila aims to be a gateway for Greater Bay Area firms entering Southeast Asia.
Xi backs Belarus sovereignty, Polymarket keeps Xi out-by-2027 odds at 6.25%
After Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko met Vladimir Putin in Valdai, he traveled to Beijing, where Xi Jinping said China backs Belarus’s sovereignty and called for continued strategic dialogue.
US strikes Iran as Polymarket odds peg Starmer exit before 2027 at 90.5%
On the second straight day of attacks, the U.S. military said it struck multiple targets in Iran as a ceasefire came under strain.
Philippines foils 2nd school attack plot as Polymarket clash odds dip to 13.5%
On Wednesday night, Philippine officials arrested a 14-year-old in Leyte after tracing online chatter about an impending mass shooting in Tacloban, days after three students were killed there.
Odds dip on China-Taiwan invasion bet as Polymarket prices Yes at 5.85%
On June 24, 2026, a feed item carried only a Hong Kong Happy Valley Race 1 result entry, with no cross-strait security update attached.
Micron earnings loom as Polymarket cuts China-Philippines clash odds to 13.5%
Investors are bracing for Micron’s quarterly earnings after chip stocks led a broad pullback, with the report seen as a key test of AI-driven pricing strength in memory.
Pentagon drops “Indo” from command name as Polymarket Taiwan clash stays 7.5%
On June 16, U.S. officials said the Pentagon will rename Indo-Pacific Command back to Pacific Command, a symbolic shift some analysts say could dent U.S.-India ties.
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Starmer resigns as Polymarket tilts Mexico to 50.5% vs Czechia
On Monday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he will resign and remain as caretaker until Labour picks a new leader, as Andy Burnham emerges as front-runner.
China widens curbs on U.S. firms as Polymarket Taiwan-invasion odds drop to 25%
On Monday, China added dozens of U.S. entities to new export controls and procurement bans, citing retaliation for Washington’s Pentagon-linked listings.
Bitcoin Nears $66K as Trump Announces Iran Peace Deal
Bitcoin up 2% to $65,881 after Trump confirms an Iran peace deal. Geopolitical relief fuels 'risk-on' sentiment in crypto markets.
Crypto Markets Drop $80B as US Strikes Heighten Iran Tensions
Bitcoin and Ether hit multi-week lows as US-Iran conflict triggers risk-off sentiment, wiping $80B from crypto markets.
