GULF MARKETS
Polymarket hikes Iran invasion odds to 28.5% as U.S.-Iran strikes persist
After the U.S. military completed an 11th night of strikes, reporting said operations could intensify near an underground area by a major Iranian nuclear site as diplomacy faltered.
Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds through July 18
The Netherlands is reported to plan a ban on products from Israeli settlements starting September 22, adding fresh political pressure in the region.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec.
Polymarket odds for Israel–Iran ceasefire ease to 99.65% after Kuwait claim
Iran said it targeted a US base in Kuwait with missiles, a headline that immediately nudged ceasefire-risk pricing in prediction markets.
Polymarket odds dip to 9.5% on Iran regime fall before 2027 after strikes
Iranian state media reported US strikes hit a city that hosts a nuclear plant, raising fresh questions about escalation.
Polymarket Hormuz normal-traffic odds sink to 52.5% on escalation risks
An Iranian official reportedly threatened a “full-scale offensive” if US strikes continue, raising fears of wider escalation that could disrupt shipping.
Polymarket: Iran invasion Yes jumps to 19.5% after Kish strike report
A headline about a fire on Iran’s Kish after U.S. strikes spread on July 14, 2026, and traders treated it as an escalation catalyst.
Polymarket: Hormuz normalization by July 15 at 0.35% Yes on $9.8M
After a new exchange of fire, the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as an initial deal to reopen it and extend a shaky ceasefire emerged.
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No
A new report says Iran and Oman are advancing plans to impose transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. opposition.
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcy
A top Iranian negotiator said a memorandum of understanding with the United States remains unfulfilled, and Iran won’t hold broader talks until it is implemented.