INVASION ODDS
Invasion Odds
Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role.
Invasion Odds
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.
Invasion Odds
US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5%
CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran.
