IRAN CONFLICT
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization drop to 65.5% on disruption
Maritime tracking cited in a new report shows large-vessel crossings on a US-coordinated Strait of Hormuz route effectively halted amid renewed US-Iran fighting.
Polymarket odds price 16.5% chance of U.S. invading Iran before 2027
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes tied to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02.
Iran attacks widen conflict as Polymarket cuts Trump Iran-entry odds to 10%
After U.S. strikes, Iran reportedly attacked Bahrain and Kuwait and warned it could halt talks to end the war, widening the conflict ahead of the June 30 deadline.
Hormuz strike jolts Iran-entry market as Polymarket cuts Trump odds to 15%
A report said Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening worries about shipping security in a key chokepoint.
VanEck Flags Stagflation Risk as Iran Crisis Sparks Market Sell-Off
Geopolitical shocks from Iran conflict and weak jobs data trigger broad U.S. equity retreat. Oil surges past $98 as Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens 20% of global supply.
