IRAN GULF
Polymarket: Hormuz normal-traffic odds stuck at 13.5% amid lawsuit fallout
On July 23, 2026, a report said sailors from a Thai cargo ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz sued the ship’s owners, alleging ignored Iran warnings.
Polymarket odds: Hormuz normalcy by Aug. 31 at 14.5% after UK pullback
The UK has withdrawn its diplomatic staff from Iran amid an “ongoing security situation,” adding to near-term regional risk.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 drop to 52.5%
A report says President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would destroy Iranian infrastructure after any ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely
Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz kept falling, a new report says, blaming the continued slide on fresh US–Iran attacks.
Polymarket odds: 98% say Hormuz traffic won't normalize by July 31
After a fresh round of U.S.
Polymarket odds peg Israel-Iran ceasefire at 99.6% through July 18
Over the past year, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said it handled a record number of antisemitic incidents abroad, underscoring heightened security pressure beyond Israel’s borders.
Polymarket odds hit 99% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
After U.S. forces wrapped an eighth day of airstrikes hitting IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, and maritime sites, attention stayed on whether tensions disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 slide to 51.5%
A new report says U.S.–Iran fighting has intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, with repeated airstrikes over multiple nights even as diplomacy flickers.
Polymarket prices 99% 'No' on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Iran’s army claimed it launched a drone attack on US military sites in Jordan, adding a new security flashpoint for the region.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikes
A report says the U.S. military reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports and launched hours-long strikes on dozens of targets after attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threat
A July 15 report said Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants next week if no deal emerges, adding escalation risk around Strait of Hormuz security expectations.
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31 at 1.85% Yes
Reports say the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes as an interim peace deal unraveled, with incidents around the Strait of Hormuz and claims of vessels hit in Gulf waters.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 seen at 2% after UK IRGC ban
Iran condemned the UK’s move to ban the IRGC as “irresponsible,” casting the dispute as a security flashpoint that could feed Gulf shipping-risk narratives.
Polymarket slashes Hormuz normal-traffic odds to 56.5% after conflict headlines
Donald Trump reportedly said the Iran war is moving “very fast” and that the U.S. will seek control of the Strait of Hormuz, as oil prices rose with fresh fighting.
Polymarket odds jump as July 12 leads Iran Gulf action ladder at 84.5%
US Central Command said it launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week, hitting about 140 military sites after an IRGC attack disabled the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of
