IRAN TALKS
Polymarket: Switzerland lead dips to 27.5% for next US-Iran talks venue
On July 9, 2026, a report said the US expanded strikes in Iran, while Iranian officials reported civilian damage across Bushehr province near key infrastructure.
Khamenei funeral spotlights Iran talks as Polymarket keeps Trump at 6.5%
Ceremonies for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei run July 4–9, drawing millions and foreign delegations as Tehran warns against military action and Trump says the U.S.
Russia escalates Ukraine strikes as Polymarket backs Pakistan for US-Iran talks
On July 4, 2026, Russian strikes hit multiple Ukrainian regions, killing four people in Sumy and sparking a major fire at a Kherson poultry farm.
U.S.–Iran talks show progress as Polymarket puts July 7 Hormuz normalcy at 1%
After the latest indirect U.S.-Iran talks concluded, Iran reported “positive progress” and said a communication channel with Washington will be set up to address MoU breaches.
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%
Fresh exchanges between the United States and Iran have put a reported preliminary understanding in doubt, complicating the push toward a finalized nuclear agreement.
Vance cites Iran progress; Polymarket puts Hormuz normal-traffic at 48.5%
In Bürgenstock, Switzerland, U.S.
U.S.-Iran talks ease tensions as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 78.5%
Early Monday in Switzerland, high-level U.S.-Iran talks ended with mediators citing “encouraging progress” and a 60-day roadmap plus a direct hotline to prevent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil slips on US-Iran talk progress as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 79%
Brent crude slid 1.85% to $79.08 by 2:40 p.m. Singapore time after mediators said Washington and Tehran agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal.
US-Iran talks raise Israel focus as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 37%
On June 21 at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort, JD Vance began what he called historic US-Iran talks as Trump warned of strikes if Iran doesn’t curb proxies in Lebanon.
