MONETARY POLICY
Fed minutes loom as Polymarket no-cut 2026 odds slip to 77.55%
The US Dollar stayed resilient heading into a week with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and new US jobless claims, key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations.
Warsh speaks after hawkish debut as Polymarket no-cuts bet slips to 78%
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will appear at an ECB forum panel in Portugal, his first public remarks since his policy-meeting debut.
MUFG warns yen intervention risk as Polymarket sees 80.5% Fed hold in July
A MUFG analysis warned that rising Fed hawkishness is renewing pressure on the yen and raising the odds of Japanese intervention, especially if moves turn rapid.
Euro holds amid Middle East risk as Polymarket hikes July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
In recent trading, the euro stayed steady versus the U.S. dollar as investors tracked Middle East tensions and shifting expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Bitcoin slips under $60K as Polymarket pegs 80% odds of 0 Fed cuts in 2026
A broad selloff pushed Bitcoin below $60,000, wiping out about $1 billion as losses spread across major tokens.
Barclays sees USDHKD capped as Polymarket boosts July Fed hold odds to 75.5%
Barclays said USDHKD’s upside may be capped below 7.84 as rate differentials and policy expectations drive pricing.
BofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%
After the latest FOMC meeting, Bank of America shifted its call to three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, citing fading tolerance for above-target inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin
Screwworm risk and USMCA July 1 clock keep Polymarket at 80% for zero Fed cuts
A June report said ground beef prices are up over 20% since January 2025 as tighter cattle supplies meet a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into the US and looming USMCA renewal risk ahead of
Warsh launches Fed policy review as Polymarket lifts July hold odds to 73.5%
After his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh formed five task forces to rethink communications, data, inflation views, AI’s impact, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.
PBOC Completes Tender for Six-Month RMB Bills in Hong Kong
The PBOC issued six-month RMB bills in Hong Kong on June 22, 2026, leveraging offshore liquidity to support monetary policy goals.
ECB Warns Stablecoins Risk Monetary Control, Touts Digital Euro
ECB highlights risks of stablecoins like bank runs, while advocating for a digital euro to modernize public money and ensure financial stability.
Hong Kong Deposits Rise 0.9% as Renminbi Holdings Top RMB1 Trillion
HKMA February 2026 data shows total deposits up 0.9%, with renminbi deposits jumping 3.6% to RMB1,029.3 billion amid shifting currency preferences.
Hong Kong Dollar Deposits Rise 1.3% as RMB Holdings Near RMB1T Mark
HKMA January 2026 data shows HKD deposits climbing while foreign currency holdings slip 1.1%. Renminbi deposits hit RMB993.9 billion.
Hong Kong Deposits Jump 11.8% in 2025 as RMB Holdings Slip
HKMA reports total deposits grew 11.8% for 2025 while December saw RMB deposits drop 4.2% to RMB960.1 billion amid corporate fund flows.
Sei Labs Research Argues Stablecoins Turn Fed Into Global Retail Bank
New Sei Labs paper models how dollar-pegged stablecoins export U.S. monetary policy worldwide, creating an 'impossible quartet' for central banks.
