NUCLEAR DEAL
Trump crypto disclosure nudges Polymarket US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
A US Office of Government Ethics report released this week detailed President Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures, including over $1.4 billion tied to crypto ventures and meme coin sales.
Iran rules out near-term US talks as Polymarket puts Dec. 31 deal odds at 45.5%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said there would be no Iran-US talks in the coming days, signaling no immediate diplomatic engagement.
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%
Fresh exchanges between the United States and Iran have put a reported preliminary understanding in doubt, complicating the push toward a finalized nuclear agreement.
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track.
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.
US strikes Iran; Polymarket lifts Dec. 31 nuclear deal odds to 54%
On Friday, the U.S. hit Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites after a drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump cites Iran funds for farm buys as Polymarket holds deal-by-Aug 31 at 25.5%
Donald Trump was reported saying the US would soon buy farm goods with unfrozen Iranian funds.
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on Polymarket
U.S. and Iranian officials publicly disputed whether Tehran agreed to U.N. inspections of bombed nuclear sites as talks continued, with Trump threatening to walk away without inspections.
Post-ceasefire warning hits US-Iran deal bets, Polymarket Aug 31 at 23.5%
On June 23, 2026, NYU professor Arang Keshavarzian said the post-ceasefire Middle East is entering a fragile, uncertain phase, citing divisions over the framework and Hormuz security risks.
