RUSSIA UKRAINE
Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 19.5% after Iran escalation
The US carried out a third straight night of strikes in Iran, as Donald Trump warned Tehran it would be “hit hard” and a naval blockade was reinstated.
Omsk refinery hit trims Polymarket odds for United Russia lead to 54.5%
On Monday, industry sources said Ukraine’s drone strike halted Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery after damaging key crude distillation units, with repairs underway and no injuries reported.
Russia steps up strikes as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2026 odds to 11.5%
Russian overnight attacks on Ukraine killed at least four people and injured 10, officials said Friday, after a deadly day in Kyiv.
Drone hits raise Russia strain; Polymarket sees 11.5% chance Putin exits by 2026
As the war entered its fifth year, Ukraine’s drone campaign set a major oil refinery in southern Russia on fire, and Putin acknowledged a “certain deficit” of fuel while promising tougher protection
Trump headlines nudge Polymarket: 11.5% odds Putin exits by end-2026
In a June 26 news roundup, President Donald Trump warned “godless communists” are taking over the Democratic Party and hinted at consequences for Iran, while a U.S.-backed Israel-Lebanon framework
Supreme Court border ruling as Polymarket raises Putin exit odds to 9.5%
On Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 to lift a lower-court block on an asylum-limiting border practice the Trump administration could revive.
