STRAIT HORMUZ

Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely

Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz kept falling, a new report says, blaming the continued slide on fresh US–Iran attacks.

Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threat
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threat

A July 15 report said Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants next week if no deal emerges, adding escalation risk around Strait of Hormuz security expectations.

Polymarket: Iran Hormuz fee odds dip to 72% for Dec 31 after ship attacks
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket: Iran Hormuz fee odds dip to 72% for Dec 31 after ship attacks

A top US commander in the Middle East said Iran attacked seven commercial ships in the past week, heightening maritime-risk worries.

Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes

A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation.

Polymarket cuts Hormuz normalization odds to 63.5% after Iran closure claim
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket cuts Hormuz normalization odds to 63.5% after Iran closure claim

A report says US forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week after the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic returns to normal by Dec.

Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15

Fresh reports of new Iran conflict attacks surfaced as a Washington official denied US involvement and said technical talks with Iran continue.

Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31

Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S.

Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares

At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role.

Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up
Strait Hormuz

Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up

The U.S. military said it ended a new round of strikes in Iran after hitting about 90 targets, as Iran responded with attacks affecting U.S.-allied Gulf states.

Missile-hit CMA CGM ship may be scrapped as Polymarket Yes slips to 24.5%
Strait Hormuz

Missile-hit CMA CGM ship may be scrapped as Polymarket Yes slips to 24.5%

CMA CGM’s chief executive said a company vessel hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz may be sent for scrapping, underscoring the security risks facing commercial shipping.

Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No
Strait Hormuz

Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No

A new report says Iran and Oman are advancing plans to impose transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. opposition.

U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%
Strait Hormuz

U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%

Brent crude rose about 0.9% Monday to $73.21 after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iran over alleged vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Strait Hormuz

Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%

Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane.

Iran strike report lifts Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 31.5%
Strait Hormuz

Iran strike report lifts Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 31.5%

A report said Iran targeted U.S. military positions in retaliation for earlier American airstrikes, raising fears of wider escalation and shipping disruptions.

US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%
Strait Hormuz

US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%

Oil prices slid to pre-war levels on June 25 as the United States said Strait of Hormuz shipping was nearing normal, even as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels to follow Tehran-designated