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Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcy
A top Iranian negotiator said a memorandum of understanding with the United States remains unfulfilled, and Iran won’t hold broader talks until it is implemented.
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States.
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait.
US strikes, Trump vow sink Polymarket Jul15 Hormuz normalization odds to 13.5%
Fresh U.S. military strikes coincided with former President Donald Trump warning he would “complete the job” in Iran, heightening escalation concerns around Gulf shipping lanes.
Iran rejects US Hormuz hotline as Polymarket sees just 3.55% for normal traffic
Iran’s IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said a proposed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz hotline “has not happened and will not happen,” as reports described renewed fire and a ship hit late Thursday.
Trump alleges Iran Hormuz breach as Polymarket puts Jul 31 talks at 72%
Former President Donald Trump said Iran broke a ceasefire by firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking new concern over maritime security.
UAE-Iran security call lifts Polymarket 'normal Hormuz traffic' odds to 33.5%
The UAE held a rare security-focused call with Iran as tensions put Strait of Hormuz shipping safety under scrutiny.
Hormuz ship strike stalls UN evacuation as Polymarket Yes rises to 54.5%
After a cargo ship was struck near Oman, the UN’s maritime agency paused plans to evacuate over 11,000 sailors from the Strait of Hormuz pending safety guarantees.
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%
Brent crude jumped up to 4% after the UN maritime agency halted an evacuation plan for ships near the Strait of Hormuz following a cargo-vessel attack.
Hormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%
A maritime agency said a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring ongoing security risks in the vital shipping corridor.
Hormuz war-risk premiums fall as Polymarket puts July 15 normal traffic at 30%
On June 25, 2026, a report said insurers cut war-risk premiums for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, signaling easing perceived threats along the corridor.
England-Ghana draw lifts Hormuz normalization odds to 42.5% on Polymarket
England and Ghana played to a 0-0 World Cup draw, with late chances but no breakthrough.
Iran vows Hormuz control as Polymarket prices 75.5% odds traffic stays abnormal
After talks with Washington in Switzerland ended, Iran said it will keep administering the Strait of Hormuz and that conditions won’t return to pre-war norms.
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%
Sunday night’s explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility killed at least 13 and injured 66, though officials said exports won’t be affected and called it an accident.
