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Polymarket: Hormuz normal-traffic odds stuck at 13.5% amid lawsuit fallout
On July 23, 2026, a report said sailors from a Thai cargo ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz sued the ship’s owners, alleging ignored Iran warnings.
Polymarket odds: Hormuz normalcy by Aug. 31 at 14.5% after UK pullback
The UK has withdrawn its diplomatic staff from Iran amid an “ongoing security situation,” adding to near-term regional risk.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 drop to 52.5%
A report says President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would destroy Iranian infrastructure after any ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz normal traffic drop to 54% after Iran strike reports
Reports said the US military carried out an eleventh straight night of strikes on Iran, with blasts near Tabriz and air defenses active around Tehran, aimed at limiting threats to Strait of Hormuz
Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M
A report says U.S.-Iran attacks stretched into a 10th straight day, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled and energy prices rising.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic back to normal by 2026? Yes odds slide to 54.5%
A July report said petrol and oil prices jumped as US–Iran tensions flared, with limited weekend transits and tanker incidents near Oman raising alarms about Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz normalization drop to 50.5% after US-Iran strikes
CENTCOM released new video as the US launched additional airstrikes against Iran, as scrutiny grows over how the Strait of Hormuz is monitored during escalating tensions.
Polymarket odds: 98% say Hormuz traffic won't normalize by July 31
After a fresh round of U.S.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end slide to 52.5%
U.S. forces struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, Central Command said, heightening uncertainty around regional shipping and timelines.
Polymarket prices 98.7% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
A report says Jerusalem is preparing to join fighting with Iran as the US weighs next steps, raising fears of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds hit 99% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
After U.S. forces wrapped an eighth day of airstrikes hitting IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, and maritime sites, attention stayed on whether tensions disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket Hormuz normal-traffic odds sink to 52.5% on escalation risks
An Iranian official reportedly threatened a “full-scale offensive” if US strikes continue, raising fears of wider escalation that could disrupt shipping.
Polymarket odds on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 slide to 51.5%
A new report says U.S.–Iran fighting has intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, with repeated airstrikes over multiple nights even as diplomacy flickers.
Polymarket: No seen 99% on Hormuz normalization by July 31 amid IRGC warning
A July 16 video report says Iran’s IRGC warned it could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait after Hormuz, potentially with Houthi help to disrupt shipping.
