UKRAINE RUSSIA
Polymarket prices Syrskyi exit by Dec 31 at 95% as OSCE visits Kyiv
OSCE permanent representatives arrived in Kyiv after another massive Russian attack to witness the damage, as Ruslan Stefanchuk and Volodymyr Zelensky pressed allies for faster air-defense support.
Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 16% after Duma exile bill push
Russia’s State Duma is set to fast-track a bill midweek that would curb exiled anti-war Russians’ access to online banking, property deals, and consular services, pending Putin’s signature.
Polymarket odds for Putin out by Jun 2027 jump to 16% after drone reports
On July 20, 2026, reports said an overnight wave of Ukrainian drones hit Moscow and nearby districts, wounding at least 10 people and sparking fires and evacuations.
Polymarket odds dip on Syrskyi exit by year-end as Kyiv faces mass strikes
Overnight, Russia fired 40+ missiles and 120 attack drones, with most aimed at Kyiv, as rescue and cleanup efforts continued, Zelensky said.
Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18%
A Russian missile strike destroyed a residential building in Kyiv as crews cleared debris after an overnight barrage that killed at least 22 people, with Ukraine saying 68 missiles and 351 drones
Drone strikes hit Chernihiv as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 19%
On July 6, Russian drones hit two enterprises in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, igniting fires in Koriukivka district that responders later put out with no reported casualties.
Deadly Kyiv strikes lift Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 9.5%
Early Monday, Russia launched waves of missiles and drones at Ukraine, killing at least 18 people as Kyiv took the brunt and officials reported 60 wounded.
Hungary ouster plan nudges Polymarket Putin-exit odds to 9.5%
A report says Hungary’s government is planning a constitutional change that would make it easier to initiate the president’s removal.
Kyiv leadership buzz lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by end-2026 to 11.5%
A Ukrainska Pravda investigation said ex-commander Valerii Zaluzhny told President Volodymyr Zelensky he would run if an autumn election were held, though details were unverified and wartime voting
Kherson drone strike lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 14.5%
By 11:00, officials in Kherson said a Russian drone strike on a passenger minibus left two dead and nine wounded, including two healthcare workers.
Poland-Ukraine UPA row lifts Polymarket Putin-exit odds to 13.5%
Poland and Ukraine’s WWII-era UPA dispute flared after Zelensky named a unit “Heroes of UPA” and Poland’s Karol Nawrocki revoked an award he’d received, as Warsaw debates leverage over Kyiv.
Ukraine reports Crimea strikes as Polymarket puts 2026 recapture odds at 13.5%
Between June 27 and 29, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said it struck Russian air defenses and fuel logistics in occupied Crimea, including a Pantsir-S1 and ST-68 and 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot radars.
UN report on POW abuses lifts Polymarket Crimea recapture odds to 14%
From December 2025 to May 2026, UN monitors documented credible reports of 37 Ukrainian servicemen executed and widespread torture and sexual violence against POWs.
Dnipro strike hits Ukraine as Polymarket raises Crimea recapture odds to 13.5%
Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Dnipro, killing four people and later leaving 21 wounded, according to regional officials.
Dnipropetrovsk hit refocuses front as Polymarket Crimea odds rise to 13.5%
Over the past day, Russian forces launched 40-plus attacks across Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring two people and damaging homes and infrastructure, local officials said.