US ELECTIONS
Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds
On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation.
GOP plans $8M ad blitz as Polymarket keeps Newsom at 18.2% for 2028
Republican strategists are lining up an $8 million advertising push aimed at a Platner replacement, signaling an early bid to shape the next cycle’s narrative.
McMorrow exits Michigan Senate race as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 odds
With a month left before Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her bid, setting up a tighter El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens showdown.
Trump emissions-rule pardons hit as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.6%
On Truth Social, President Donald Trump announced pardons for business owners and truck mechanics convicted of violating federal emissions-control rules, calling the prosecutions excessive.
Democratic leftward primary wins leave Polymarket French race odds flat
After a string of left-wing Democratic primary victories, party officials and strategists are reassessing messaging, recruitment, and spending as moderate-progressive tensions sharpen.
White House to end USMCA extension as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.45%
A July 1 report said the White House will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, underscoring a harder line on the pact as trade politics intensify.
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%
Kiros unseated Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, ending her 15-term run in a rare Democratic incumbent loss that’s fueling 2028 speculation about shifting coalitions.
US House backs kids’ online safety bill as Polymarket lifts Bardella to 26.5%
On a U.S. House vote, lawmakers advanced a children’s online safety proposal, shifting the fight to Senate negotiations that could reshape or stall it.
Supreme Court rulings near as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 Dem odds to 20.55%
In the next few days, the Supreme Court is expected to issue several major rulings, including cases that could reshape presidential power and election rules ahead of the midterms.
GOP affordability feud hits headlines as Polymarket’s Newsom slips to 20.65%
Former President Donald Trump is facing pressure on his affordability pitch as Republicans clash over the SAVE America Act, complicating efforts to keep cost-of-living front and center.
Colorado Dem governor race grabs attention as Bardella holds 25.5% on Polymarket
A new report spotlighted the emerging Colorado Democratic governor primary, contrasting Phil Weiser and Michael Bennet on priorities and positioning.
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
A political commentary piece says voter sentiment, not Senate Republicans, most constrained Donald Trump’s Iran posture, highlighting how domestic incentives can steer foreign policy.
Trump curbs OpenAI launch as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.7%
A report says the Trump administration intervened to limit the launch of OpenAI’s latest model, signaling tighter federal scrutiny of advanced AI releases.
House Dem election-threats forum nudges Bardella down to 24.5% on Polymarket
On June 25, 2026, House Democrats hosted a live forum on threats to elections, spotlighting concerns about voting risks.
Schwab–Cboe prediction push as Polymarket puts Newsom at 23.1%
A June 20 report said Charles Schwab is working with Cboe on prediction-style, yes-or-no contracts for brokerage accounts, including S&P 500 level outcomes.
