US STRIKES
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 19.5% after reported U.S. strikes
A report said the U.S. launched strikes on Iran after Trump announced a renewed blockade tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping, prompting Iranian attacks on U.S. allies and vessels.
Polymarket prices Iran invasion risk at 19.5% after expanded U.S. strikes
Over several days, U.S.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.
US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5%
CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran.
US strikes, Trump vow sink Polymarket Jul15 Hormuz normalization odds to 13.5%
Fresh U.S. military strikes coincided with former President Donald Trump warning he would “complete the job” in Iran, heightening escalation concerns around Gulf shipping lanes.
US strikes Iran again after Hormuz tanker hit; Polymarket sees 99.95% by Aug 31
On the second day of renewed action, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, and drone sites after the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around 4:30 a.m. ET.
CENTCOM confirms new US strikes as Polymarket puts Iran shipping hit at 99%
On June 27, U.S. Central Command confirmed new U.S. strikes, saying Iran had a chance to honor a ceasefire but chose not to.
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5%
After a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command released video it said showed strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites.
US strikes Iran; Polymarket lifts Dec. 31 nuclear deal odds to 54%
On Friday, the U.S. hit Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites after a drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
