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Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization slide to 62.5% on Gulf flare-up
The U.S. military said it ended a new round of strikes in Iran after hitting about 90 targets, as Iran responded with attacks affecting U.S.-allied Gulf states.
Polymarket prices BTC above $52K at 99.95% as CLARITY Act chatter builds
A new report says Bitcoin’s rebound is being pitched as a “CLARITY Act” catalyst over the next four weeks, even as no Senate floor vote is scheduled and delays could push action past Aug. 7.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes
US strikes were reported on Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask, with at least one death in Iranshahr and widespread power outages in Chabahar.
Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31
Washington said it will lift Syria’s “state sponsor of terrorism” label in 45 days unless Congress blocks it, after Trump met President Ahmed al-Sharaa at a NATO summit in Turkey.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares
At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
Polymarket odds price 16.5% chance of U.S. invading Iran before 2027
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes tied to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40%
In a CNN interview, Benjamin Netanyahu said he warned Donald Trump that a U.S. sale of F-35 jets to Turkey could upset the Middle East balance of power.

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