Bitcoin Tests Critical $111K Support as RSI Hits Neutral Zone Amid Profit-Taking Pressure
Peter Zhang Oct 15, 2025 17:54
Bitcoin trades at $111,005.84, down 1.6% as traders continue profit-taking following last week's 7.29% decline, with technical indicators signaling potential oversold bounce.
Quick Take
• BTC trading at $111,005.84 (down 1.6% in 24h) • Continued profit-taking pressure following October 10th's sharp 7.29% market decline • Bitcoin testing key support near $111K pivot point with RSI approaching oversold territory • Traditional market correlation weakening as crypto-specific factors drive price action
Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement
The most significant catalyst affecting BTC price remains the profit-taking wave that began on October 10, 2025, when Bitcoin experienced a sharp 7.29% decline to $112,714.90. This sell-off reflected broader market cooling ahead of significant October events, with traders locking in gains after Bitcoin's strong performance earlier in the year.
Adding to the complex market dynamics, VanEck's Matthew Sigel provided a bullish long-term outlook, predicting Bitcoin's market cap could reach approximately half of gold's value following the next halving event. This projection suggests a potential BTC price target of around $644,000, though such forecasts are having limited impact on current trading sentiment as near-term profit-taking dominates.
The traditional markets backdrop has also shifted, with Goldman Sachs revising its gold price forecast for December 2026 upward from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce. This adjustment, driven by strong ETF inflows and anticipated central bank purchases, highlights the evolving precious metals landscape that Bitcoin increasingly competes within as a store of value asset.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Consolidation Near Key Support
Price Action Context
Bitcoin technical analysis reveals BTC price currently trading below all major short-term moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $114,175.48 and 20-day SMA at $116,777.98 providing overhead resistance. However, Bitcoin remains well-supported above the critical 200-day moving average at $107,249.04, maintaining the broader bullish structure intact.
The current positioning shows BTC price has retraced to the lower portion of its recent trading range, with Bollinger Bands indicating a %B position of 0.2161, suggesting Bitcoin is trading in the lower 20% of its 20-day price envelope.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI reading of 41.01 places Bitcoin in neutral territory, approaching oversold conditions that historically have provided bounce opportunities. The MACD histogram at -1086.1721 confirms bearish momentum remains in play, though the indicator may be reaching extreme levels that often precede reversals.
Bitcoin's Average True Range of $4,210.33 indicates elevated volatility continues, providing both risk and opportunity for active traders. The Stochastic oscillator readings (%K: 37.17, %D: 45.71) suggest potential for a technical bounce as momentum indicators approach oversold extremes.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $114,175 (7-day moving average and recent pivot high) • Support: $111,594 (current pivot point and psychological round number)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A breakdown below $111,000 could trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the strong support zone at $102,000, representing the next major technical floor. Conversely, a reclaim of $114,000 would signal profit-taking pressure is easing and could spark a relief rally toward $116,777 (20-day SMA).
BTC Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading independently from traditional markets, with crypto-specific profit-taking dynamics overriding broader market correlations. The disconnect from equity markets suggests institutional Bitcoin holders are managing positions based on cryptocurrency market cycles rather than following S&P 500 movements.
Gold's strength, as reflected in Goldman Sachs' upgraded price targets, presents an interesting dynamic for Bitcoin as both assets compete for safe-haven allocation. However, the immediate correlation remains muted as Bitcoin works through its technical correction phase.
Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A successful defense of the $111,594 pivot point combined with RSI approaching 35-40 levels could trigger a technical bounce. Volume expansion on any upside move above $114,000 would confirm renewed buying interest and target the $116,777-$119,000 resistance zone.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold $111,000 support would likely accelerate selling toward $108,000-$109,000, with a worst-case scenario testing the psychological $100,000 level. Extended profit-taking could persist if trading volume remains elevated on downside moves.
Risk Management
Conservative traders should consider stops below $110,000 to limit downside exposure, while aggressive buyers might scale in near current levels with tight 2-3% stop losses. Given the $4,210 daily ATR, position sizing should account for potential $8,000+ daily trading ranges in either direction.
Image source: Shutterstock.jpg)